Abstract
Using fertility data from national surveys and population censuses for China, Japan and South Korea, this study analyzes the levels and trends of mean age at childbearing (MAC) in the three countries from 1990 to 2015. After using the decomposition technique to isolate the effects of parity composition and childbearing schedule in each of the three countries, the article presents a quantitative examination of the factors that underlie dynamic changes and cross-national differences of MACs. Results indicate that the MAC of China experienced a decrease between 1990 and 1995, followed by sustained growth afterwards. The increase of MAC in China has been driven by the postponement of childbearing and changes in parity composition, with the former playing a larger role. The mechanisms underlying the patterns since 2010 deserve special attention. Compared with Japan and South Korea, China has had relatively lower MAC during the last 25 years; the three countries demonstrate different patterns in terms of the roles of parity composition and birth timing. The accuracy of MAC in identifying the timing of period fertility and the policy implications of timing on upturning fertility level are discussed.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Balasch, J., & Gratacos, E. (2011). Delayed childbearing: effects on fertility and the outcome of pregnancy. Fetal Diagnosis and Therapy, 29(4): 263–273.
Billari, F. C., Goisis, A., Liefbroer, A. C., et al. (2011). Social age deadlines for the childbearing of women and men. Human Reproduction, 26(3): 616–622.
Billari F. C., Liefbroer A. & Philipov D. (2006). The postponement of childbearing in Europe: driving forces and implications. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 4(4): 1–17.
Boling P. (2008). Demography, culture, and policy: understanding Japan’s low fertility. Population and Development Review, 34(2): 307–326.
Bongaarts J. & Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review, 24(2): 271–291.
Chen Youhua. (1991). Analysis of ages at first marriage and at first childbearing of Chinese women. Chinese Journal of Population Science (in Chinese), 26(5): 39–45, 12.
Easterlin, R. A. (1980). Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Harada Kouhei. (2012). Low fertility and aging society in East Asia. In Wang Qiao (Ed.), Low Fertility Rate and Aging of Population & Sustainable Development of Economy and Society in East Asia (pp. 113–145). Social Sciences Academic Press.
Henry, L. (1980). Fertility of marriages: a new method of measurement, Population Studies Translation Series, No. 3. New York: United Nations. Originally published 1953.
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2): 211–251.
Li Guojing. (1988). The dynamic analysis of mean age at childbearing in China (1960-1981). Population Journal, 3:51–54.
Lutz, W. & Skirbekk, V. (2005). Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries. Population and Development Review, 31(4): 699–720.
Mikkelsen L., Phillips, D. E, & Abou Zahr C. et al. (2015). A global assessment of civil registration and vital statistics systems: monitoring data quality and progress. Lancet, Vol 386:1395–1406.
Oakley, D. (1978). American-Japanese interaction in the development of population policy in Japan, 1945–1952. Population and Development Review, 31(4): 617–632.
Ochiai, E. (2011). Unsustainable societies: the failure of familialism in east Asia’s compressed modernity. Historical Social Research, 36(2): 219–245.
Remund, A. (2012). Parity-decomposition of the change in the mean age at childbearing: lessons for the timing of the second demographic transition. Paper presented for European Population Conference, Stockholm, Sweden, https://doi.org/epc2012.princeton.edu/papers/120830. Accessed 12 December 2016.
Ryder, B. (1956). Problems of trend determination during a transition in fertility, The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 34(1): 5–21.
Shen K, Wang F. & Cai Y. (2012). The global population policy shift and lessons for China. International Economic Review (1). 112–122.
Shi J. (2015). Low Fertility, Population Aging and Socioeconomic Sustainable Development. Beijing: Science Press.
Song, J & Kim, I K. (2009). Population Policy and National Situation: Comparative Study of China and South Korea. Beijing: Guangming Daily Press. Pp. 79, 21–22.
UN. (2015) World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Van de Kaa & Dirk J. (1987). Europe’s second demographic transition. Population Bulletin 42(1): 1–59.
Whelpton, K. (1954). Cohort Fertility: Native White Women in the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Zeng Y. (1991). Effect of progressively increased mean age at childbearing on population development in China. Population & Economy, 47(2): 3–11.
Zhao M. (2016). Postponement of childbearing and recent trends of fertility in China. Population Journal, 38(1): 14–25.
Acknowledgment
This research is supported by the Project Study on Family Transition in China (16JJD840013) of the Key Research Centers of Minister of Education.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
About this article
Cite this article
Song, J., Zhang, J. Parity, Timing and Level of Fertility: A Comparative Study on Mean Age at Childbearing in China, Japan and South Korea. China popul. dev. stud. 1, 33–48 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03500923
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03500923