Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling the Implications of the Kyoto Protocol for a Developing Country

  • Theoretical Paper
  • Published:
OPSEARCH Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper deals with the simulation of the implications for the economy of Colombia of the Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The Protocol proposes three flexibility instruments for reaching at a lower global cost the reduction targets: the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation that would permit developing and developed countries to co-operate on a project by project basis, as well as the International Emissions Trading among developed countries. An important question is to identify precisely the benefits accruing to both parties in such agreements or trade schemes. Taking, as an hypothetical example, a co-operation between Switzerland and Colombia, and using a family of techno-economic models related to MARKAL, one presents a set of simulations of the response of the energy system of Colombia to abatement measures proposed in the Kyoto Protocol. The paper shows the necessity to go through this type of modelling approach if the policies recommended in the Kyoto protocol have to be successfully implemented.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. ABARE. “The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries: Impacts and Implications for Mechanism Design”. June (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales-ACCEF-. “Preliminary Results of Greenhouse Gas Inventory Source, Sinks and Reservoirs Project”. Bogota (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Bahn O, Cadena A, Kypreos S. “Joint Implementation of CO2 emission reduction measures between Switzerland and Colombia” International Journal of Environment and Pollution, Vol. 12, Nos. 2/3. (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Barreto L and Kypreos S. “Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and ERIS Model Prototype”. PSI Beritch 99-08, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Berger C, Dubois R, Haurie A, Lessard E, Loulou R, Waaub J.-P. “Canadian MARKAL: An advanced Linear Programming System for Energy and Environmental Modelling”. Les Cahiers du GERAD, G-90-53, Montreal (1991).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Berger C, Loulou R. “Extended MARKAL: A Brief User Manual”. Les Cahiers du GERAD, Montreal (1993).

  7. Bueler B and Kypreos S. “A Multiregional MARKAL-MACRO Model to Study an International Market of CO2 Emission Permits”. PSI Beritch No. 97-09, Switzerland (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Cadena A, Navas F, Ramírez R, Rojas C. “Desarrollo e implementación de herramientas de modelización para gestión energética en Colombia-EI Proyecto MARKAL Colombia”. Revista Energética, Vol. 11, Medellín, Colombia (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Cadena A. “Models to assess the implication of the Kyoto Protocol on the energy system and economy of Colombia”. Thesis, HEC, University of Geneva (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Carlson D and Haurie A. “A Turnpike Theory for Infinite-Horizon Open-Loop Competitive Processes”. SIAM Journal of Control and Optimization, Vol. 34, No. 4, July. (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Ecopetrol. “Programa de Operación de la Refineria de Barrancabermeja, 1994-2008”. Process Industry Modelling System, Version 5.00. (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Ellerman A, Jacoby H and Decaux A. “The Effects on Developing Countries of the Kyoto Protocol and CO2 Emissions Trading”, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 36, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  13. ETSAP-GERAD. “Modelling the Oil Refineries in GAMS-MARKAL”. May (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Fishbone L.G. and Abilock H. “MARKAL, a linear-programming model for energy systems analysis: technical description of the BNL version” International Journal of Energy Research. (1981).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Fragnieri E and Haurie A. “A Stochastic Programming Model for Energy/Environment Choices under Uncertainty”. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, Vol. 6, No. 4-6 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Grubb M with Vrolijk C and Brack D. “The Kyoto Protocol, A Guide and Assessment”. The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Earthscan (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Gruebler A. “Technology and Global Change”. Cambridge University Press (1998).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  18. Hamilton L, Goldstein G, Lee J, Manne A, Marcuse W, Morris S and Wene C.-O. “MARKAL-MACRO: An Overview”, Brookhaven National Laboratory, BNL-48377 (1992).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Haurie A, Loulou R. “Modeling Equilibria and Risk under Global Environmental Constraints in Energy Models. Les Cahiers du GERAD, G-93-08. Montreal (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Haurie A. “Environmental Coordination in Dynamic Oligopolistic Markets”. Group Decision and Negotiation, Vol. 4 (1995).

  21. Haurie A and Zaccour G. “Differential Game Models of Global Environmental Management”. In: Carraro C and Filar J (ed). Control and Game-Theoretic Models of the Environment, Annals of the International Society of Dynamic Games (1995).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Kram T. “National Energy Options for Reducing CO2 Emissions, Vol. 1: The International Connection”. Report of ETSAP/Annex IV, ECN (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Kypreos S. “The MARKAL-MACRO Model and the Climate Change”. PSI Bericht No. 96-14. Switzerland (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Kypreos S and Cadena A. “Partial and General Equilibrium Versions of Markal Models with Multi-Regional Trade: Model Specifications and Applications”. Join IEA-ALEP/IEA-ETSAP Annex VI, 6th Workshop, Antalya Turkey, October (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Kypreos S and Barreto L. “Experience Curves in MARKAL and Links to Macroeconomic Models”. Workshop on Modeling Technological Learning, NASA, Laxenburg, March (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Loulou R and Lavigne D. “MARKAL Model with Elastic Demand: Application to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control”. In: Carraro C and Haurie A (ed). Operation Research and Environmental Management, Kluwer Academic Publisher, (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Loulou R, Shukla RR, and Kanudia A. “Energy and Environment Policies for a Sustainable Future: Issues, Models and Analysis for India”. Allied Publishers, New Delhi, India (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  28. MacDonald A. “Climate Change and World Energy”. NASA Interim Report, IR-00-006, February (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Mesa O, Poveda G, Carvajal L, Salazar J. “Reservoir Reliability Design Under Interannual Climatic and Hydrological Variability”. Managing Water: Coping with Scarcity and Abundance, ASCE (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Ministerio de Minas y Energia. “Estudio de la demanda de energia en el sector transporte”, Bogota, (1987).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Ministerio de Transporte, Organización de Estados Americanos, “Estudio del sector Transporte en Colombia”. Informe Final, Bogota (1982).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Nakicenovic N. “Technological Change as a Learning Process”. NASA Induced Technology Workshop, NASA, June (1997).

  33. Unidad de Planeación Minerò Energética. “Estudio de la Demanda de Energia en Colombia 1994-2010”, Bogota (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  34. Unidad de Planeación Minerò Energética. “Estadisticas Minero-Energéticas de Colombia 1972–1995”. Bogota (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Unidad de Planeación Minerò Energética, Instituto de Economía Energética. “Estudio de la demanda de gas natural en Colombia”. Bogota (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Unidad de Planeación Minerò Energética. “Modelos de Demanda de Energia Electrica para Colombia”. Bogota (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Unidad de Planeación Minerò Energética. “La cadena de gas natural en Colombia”. Bogota (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Ministerio del Medio Ambiente. “Estrategia Nacional para el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio”, Documento Final Preliminar. Oficina de Asuntos Económicos, Bogota (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  39. United Nations. “Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”. Conference of the Parties, FCCC/CP/1997/L7/Add.1 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  40. World Coal Institute. “Coal - Power for the Progress”. Fourth Edition, Home Page (1999).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Electrical Engineering, University of Los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

    A. Cadena

  2. Dept. of Operations Research, HEC, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

    A. Haurie

Authors
  1. A. Cadena
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. Haurie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Cadena.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cadena, A., Haurie, A. Modelling the Implications of the Kyoto Protocol for a Developing Country. OPSEARCH 38, 44–66 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03398629

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03398629

Key words

Search

Navigation