Abstract
How to manage or control a heterogeneous, widely dispersed, yet globally interconnected system is a serious technological problem in any case. It is even more complex and difficult to control it for optimal efficiency and maximum benefit to the ultimate consumers while still allowing all its business components to compete fairly and freely.
This paper briefly describes our on-going work in our holistic approach to analysis of the national and global infrastructure development that builds on advances in the mathematics of complexity, methods of probabilistic risk assessment and techniques for fast computation and interactive simulation with the goal of increased agility and resilience for large-scale systems.
As an example, a model and simulation of the “Electric Enterprise” (taken in the broadest possible sense and connected to telecom, water, oil/gas and financial networks) have been developed. The model uses autonomous, adaptive agents to represent both the possible industrial components, and the corporate entities that own these components. Objectives are: 1) To develop a high-fidelity scenario-free modelling and optimization tool to use for gaining strategic insight into the operation of the deregulated power industry; 2) to show how networks of communicating and cooperating intelligent software agents can be used to adaptively manage complex distributed systems; 3) to investigate how collections of agents (agencies) can be used to buy and sell electricity and participate in the electronic marketplace; and ultimately to create self-optimizing and self-healing capabilities for the electric power grid and the interconnected critical infrastructures.
From a broader view, we have integrated these into a composite analysis technique, these advances raise an unprecedented new possibility for projecting the future implications—social, economic, environmental, human health, political, and technical—of major societal development activities and technology programs for nations individually and the world as a whole. Taken together, they promise both a real-time outlook and a future perspective on the spectrum of outcomes that might result from alternative national decision pathways. Such projection capability could reveal the development options, results, and implications for any strategy for any type of nation, whether primitive, underdeveloped, developing, or industrial. Forcing functions, critical junctures, and pinch points could be identified so that scarce development resources can be allocated to maximize benefit and minimize unintended consequences. The full realization of this next step in analysis of technology will require several years of dedicated international effort, but the need is urgent and the potential payoff great. The technical—and organizational—underpinnings for such a holistic analysis approach have been demonstrated. It remains for us to build from them a global tool for a better future.
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Dr. Massoud Amin is Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, directs the Center for the Development of Technological Leadership (CDTL), and holds the Honeywell/H. W. Sweatt Chair in Technological Leadership at the University of Minnesota. In addition to his administrative and research responsibilities, he serves as the director of graduate studies for the management of technology program and teaches several courses including Science and Technology Policy, Emerging and Pivotal Technologies, Global Management of Technology, Intellectual Property Valuation and Strategy, and Critical Infrastructure Security and Protection. His research focuses on two areas: 1) Global transition dynamics to enhance resilience, security and efficiency of complex dynamic systems. 2) Technology scanning, mapping, and valuation to identify new science and technology. He was elected a Fellow of the Institute for Infrastructure and Information Assurance (IIIA) in May 2007. In April 2008 he received a University of Minnesota Award for Outstanding Contributions to Post baccalaureate, Graduate, and Professional Education, and was inducted into the University’s Academy of Distinguished Teachers. He is a member of the Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment (BICE) at the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Applications (BMSA) at the National Academy of Sciences, Sigma Xi, Tau Beta Pi, Eta Kappa Nu, a senior member of IEEE, AAAS, AIAA, ASME, NY Academy of Sciences, SIAM, and Informs. For additional publications, see http://umn.edu/> amin
Dr. Barry Horowitz is a Professor and Chairman of the Systems and Information Engineering Department at the University of Virginia (UVA). He joined the university in 2001, having served as CEO of the Mitre Corporation. At UVA he initiated and currently directs an NSF-sponsored research center focused on Rapidly Reconfigurable Systems. In 1996 Dr Horowitz was elected into the National Academy of Engineering. Dr. Horowitz is currently serving on the Naval Studies Board (NSB) of the National Academy of Science. He received an MSEE and PhD from New York University, and a BEE from the City College of New York.
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Amin, S.M., Horowitz, B.M. Toward Agile and Resilient Large-Scale Systems: Adaptive Robust National/International Infrastructures. Global J. Flexible Syst. Manage. 9, 27–39 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03396536
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03396536