Abstract
An experiment with two replications is reported in which subjects attempt to evade prediction by a computer over aseries of binary choices. The computer routines include a control condition of complete randomization and four routines that make predictions on the basis ofinformation obtained from individual subjects concerning conditional probabilities of event choice. Prediction routines use information from the last trial only (same or different, won or lost) or for the two previous trials (eight combinations of same or different, won or lost). Two routines maximize predictions and two match predictions with estimates of conditional probabilities. Results show a consistent effect of both main variables on gain in predictive efficiency and also a significant interaction.
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Scheibe, K.E., Bloom, A.J. An Empirical Assault on the Predict Ability of Sequential Binary Choices. Psychol Rec 29, 487–500 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03394638
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03394638