Environmental Economics and Policy Studies

, Volume 7, Issue 3, pp 205–231 | Cite as

Global climate change stabilization regimes and Indian emission scenarios: Lessons for modeling of developing country transitions

  • P. R. Shukla
  • Ashish Rana
  • Amit Garg
  • Manmohan Kapshe
  • Rajesh Nair


The global climate change stabilization regime will have a bearing on future emission pathways of each nation. Corresponding to a combination of stabilization targets and a future global socioeconomic and technology scenario, there are national emissions pathways that when aggregated would make the global regime most cost effective. The underlying hypothesis of this article is that the disaggregated national (regional) scenarios, with explicit inclusion of developing country dynamics in scenario constructions and modeling frameworks, would enhance the qualitative and quantitative understanding of emissions pathways and mitigation strategies compared with the present exercises. The scenario construction for India pays specific attention to developing country dynamics, including multiple socioeconomic and demographic transitions. The article also delineates the lessons for modeling of these transitions in developing countries. The emissions pathways discussion, to begin with, considers 100-year nonintervention scenarios. For the business-as-usual scenario, the optimal portfolio of mitigation interventions in India corresponding to 550ppm (by volume) global concentration stabilization is presented. In conclusion, the article asserts the need for realistic inclusion of developing country transitions in global scenarios and modeling exercises so as to improve the emissions assessments and delineation of mitigation strategies for stabilization.

Key words

Developing country transitions Disaggregated national scenarios Climate and development agenda Climate change stabilization 550ppmv 


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Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • P. R. Shukla
    • 1
  • Ashish Rana
    • 2
  • Amit Garg
    • 3
  • Manmohan Kapshe
    • 4
  • Rajesh Nair
    • 5
  1. 1.Public Systems GroupIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabadIndia
  2. 2.Reliance Industries LimitedMumbaiIndia
  3. 3.UNEP Risø CentreDenmark
  4. 4.Maulana Azad National Institute of TechnologyBhopalIndia
  5. 5.National Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukubaJapan

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