Abstract
In order to formulate policies in response to climate change, it is essential to forecast future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the long term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed the IS92 emission scenarios in 1992, which have contributed to climate change studies and negotiation activities. Most of these scenarios were developed by research teams in developed countries, and some experts from developing countries have argued that the scenarios did not sufficiently consider the viewpoint of the developing countries. In this paper, we present our study on long-term non-policy emission scenarios for China. This study examines China’s socioeconomic development and energy activities in greater detail. The AIM/emission linkage model was developed for analysis. Seven emission scenarios were derived for China, covering six major gases from energy activities and land use changes. The results show that GHG emissions in China will increase until 2030 accompanying the country’s economic development. However, it is possible for China to maintain low GHG emissions while achieving rapid economic development.
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Jiang, K., Masui, T., Morita, T. et al. Long-term emission scenarios for China. Environ Econ Policy Stud 2, 267–287 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03353915
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03353915