Target Price Accuracy

Abstract

This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices within analysts’ reports. We compute a measure for target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the exante (unknown) 12-month stock price. Furthermore, we determine factors that explain this accuracy. Target price accuracy is negatively related to analyst-specific optimism and stock-specific risk (measured by volatility and price-to-book ratio). However, target price accuracy is positively related to the level of detail of each report, company size and the reputation of the investment bank. The potential conflicts of interests between an analyst and a covered company do not bias forecast accuracy.

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Correspondence to Alexander G. Kerl.

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Kerl, A.G. Target Price Accuracy. Bus Res 4, 74–96 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03342727

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Keywords

  • target prices
  • forecast accuracy
  • financial report
  • security analysis
  • efficient capital markets
  • financial analysts
  • conflicts of interest
  • analyst report
  • equity analysis
  • forecast deviation
  • information content