Aluminum: The Next Twenty Years

Executive Summary

This report concludes that the outlook for the world aluminum industry is quite favorable. Demand is expected to expand at a more rapid rate than for other basic metals, but not sufficiently to put undue strain on productive capacity. Capital requirements of the world aluminum industry are projected at $95.5 billion in 1980 prices — more than $200 billion in current prices—over the balance of the century. Given the aluminum industry’s past success in generating internal funds, this level of capital expanditure should not cause undue financing problems. Finally, we expect changes to occur in the structure of the industry over the forecast period, with virtually all new alumina capacity being installed in proximity to bauxite production, and—with the exception of Australia—a major shift in smelting capacity away from other industrialized economies. While the large multinational companies will still play a dominant role in the world aluminum market, their share of production and ownership is likely to decline progressively during the period.