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Estimating population trends using population viability analyses for the conservation ofCapra pyrenaica

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Abstract

Large herbivore populations can suffer important oscillations with considerable effects on ecosystem functions and services, yet our capacity to predict population fate is limited and conditional upon the availability of data. This study investigated the interannual variation in the growth rate of populations ofCapra pyrenaica Schinz, 1838, and its extinction risk by comparing the dynamics of populations that were stable for more than two decades (Gredos and Tortosa-Beceite), populations that had increased recently (Tejeda-Almijara), and populations that were in decline (Cazorla-Segura) or extinct (the Pyrenees population; hereafter, bucardo). To estimate quasi-extinction threshold assessments (50% of population extinct in this study), which have implications for the conservation of the species, we used empirical data and the predictions derived from several theoretical models. The results indicate that when variance of log population growth rate reaches a specific threshold, the probability of quasi-extinction increased drastically. ForC. pyrenaica, we recommend keeping population variance < 0.05, which will reduce the likelihood that the irruptive oscillations caused by environmental and demographic stochasticity will put the population at risk. Models to predict the dynamics ofC. pyrenaica populations should incorporate temporal stochasticity because, in this study, it strongly increased the likelihood that a population declined.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Producción Animal y Tecnología de los Alimentos, EPSH, Universidad de Zaragoza, Carretera de Cuarte s/n 22071, Huesca, Spain

    Juan M. Escós

  2. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, (CSIC), Avda. Montańana 1005, Apd. 202, 50080, Zaragoza, Spain

    Concepción L. Alados

  3. Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Andalucía, Mauricio Moro Edif. Eurocom, 2 29006, Málaga, Spain

    Antonio Pulido

  4. Departament de Medi Ambient i Habitatge, Generalitat de Catalunya, Av. De la Val de Zafán, s/n 43520, Roquetes, Tarragona, Spain

    Jordi Romera

  5. Parque Natural de Sierra de Gredos, Servicio Territorial del Medio Ambiente, Junta de Castilla y León, Pasaje del Císter, no 1, 05071, Ávila, Spain

    Nicolás González-Sánchez

  6. Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Andalucía, C/ Martínez Falero, 11, 23470, Cazorla, Jaén, Spain

    Francisco Martínez

Authors
  1. Juan M. Escós
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  2. Concepción L. Alados
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  3. Antonio Pulido
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  4. Jordi Romera
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  5. Nicolás González-Sánchez
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  6. Francisco Martínez
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Concepción L. Alados.

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Associate editor was Matt Hayward.

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Escós, J.M., Alados, C.L., Pulido, A. et al. Estimating population trends using population viability analyses for the conservation ofCapra pyrenaica . Acta Theriol 53, 275–286 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03193124

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03193124

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