Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Can migration avert population decline and ageing in East and Southeast Asia?

  • Published:
Journal of Population Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Fertility is currently below replacement level in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. These low levels are expected to lead to declines in the total population and the number of persons of labour force age. In a report that garnered much attention among policy-makers and the news media, the United Nations Population Division developed the concept of replacement migration. This was defined as the number of international migrants that would be required in order to prevent the declines in the total population; the number of persons of working age; or the potential support ratio (persons aged 15–64 per person aged 65 and over). This paper reviews the hypothetical replacement migration projections for Japan and the Republic of Korea in the United Nations report and examines similar scenarios for China, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, with a brief overview of possible policy implications.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Asian Migration News. 2001a. Union for foreign workers. 16–30 April.

  • Asian Migration News. 2001b. More Koreans in US. 16–31 March.

  • Atoh, Makoto. 2001. The coming of a hyper-aged and depopulating society and population policies — the case of Japan. Pp. 9–1 to 9-14 inUnited Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline, New York, 16–18 October 2000. ESA/P/WP. 168. New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Battistella, Graziano. 2001. Migration 2000 in Asia: a year in review.Asian Migrant 14(1): 5–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cho, Namhoon. 2001. Policy responses to population ageing and population decline in Korea. Pp. 11–1 to 11-13 inUnited Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline, New York, 16–18 October 2000. ESA/P/WP.168. New York: United Nations Population Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • Department of Statistics. 2001.Monthly Digest of Statistics, April 2001. Singapore: Ministry of Trade and Industry.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frejka, Tomas. 1973.The Future of Population Growth: Alternative Paths to Equilibrium. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Katsumata, Yukiko. 2001. The impact of population decline and population ageing in Japan from the perspectives of social and labour policy. Pp. 10–1 to 10-19 inUnited Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Responses to Ropulation Ageing and Population Decline, New York, 16–18 October 2000. ESA/P/WP.168. New York: United Nations Population Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim, Ik Ki. 2001. Policy responses to low fertility and population ageing in Korea. Pp. 12–1 to 12-11 inUnited Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline, New York, 16–18 October 2000. ESA/P/WP.168. New York: United Nations Population Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leete, Richard and Iqbal Alam. 1999. Asia’s demographic miracle: 50 years of unprecedented change.Asia-Pacific Population Journal 14(4): 9–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Migration News. 2001. Japan. 8 (2 February).

  • Republic of China, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan. 2001.Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of China, 2001. Taipei.

  • Stover, John and Sharon Kirmeyer. 1997.Dem Proj Version 4, A Computer Program for Making Population Projections. Washington DC: Futures Group International.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations. 1999.World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Vol. I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/177. New York.

  • United Nations. 2001a.World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision. Vol. I:Comprehensive Tables ST/ESA/SER.A/198. New York.

  • United Nations. 2001b.World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision. Vol. II:Sex and Age. ST/ESA/SER.A/199. New York.

  • United Nations. 2001c.Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? ST/ESA/SER.A/206. New York.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Emerging Social Issues Division, ESCAP, United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Avenue, 10200, Bangkok, Thailand

    Jerrold W. Huguet

Authors
  1. Jerrold W. Huguet
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jerrold W. Huguet.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Huguet, J.W. Can migration avert population decline and ageing in East and Southeast Asia?. Journal of Population Research 20, 107–124 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031798

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031798

Keywords

Search

Navigation