Abstract
This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept ofhousehold size propensity, that is the probability that a person of given age and sex resides in a household of sizea, c, wherea is the number of adults per household andc is number of children per household. Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011.
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The research reported in this paper arose out of the University of Melbourne’s research program to study the structure, economics and technology of households. This research began in 1986 at the Centre for Applied Research on the Future in the Department of Architecture and Building and from 1991 has been continued by the Households Research Unit in the Department of Economics. Reports of this work are contained in the collection of essaysHouseholds Work edited by Ironmonger (1989) and in discussion papers issued by the Centre for Applied Research on the Future by Ironmonger (1987), Jennings (1989) Sonius (1989) and Ironmonger and Richardson (1991). The authors wish to thank Roger Jones of the Social Sciences Data Archive for running some cross tabulations on the 1981 Census one per cent sample tape, Vic Jennings of the Households Research Unit for his valuable contributions in a number of discussions, and the referees to thisJournal for numerous helpful suggestions.
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Ironmonger, D.S., Lloyd-Smith, C.W. Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities. Journal of Population Research 9, 153–171 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029367
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029367