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Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations

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Abstract

This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, ossible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. ecomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. ssues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, Leeds, United Kingdom

    Philip Rees

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Rees, P. Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations. Journal of Population Research 14, 145–166 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029337

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