Succession, consolidation, and transition in China’s future

Abstract

Succession politics in China is usually seen as one political process. This article argues that in fact, political succession in China after Deng Xiaoping should be seen as three analytically and politically distinct processes: succession, consolidation, and transition. Each process requires different political skills and attributes, and success in one process does not guarantee success in another, and may in fact work against success in another. The article argues that Jiang Zemin is likely to be the successor, but that he will have great difficulty consolidating power after Deng’s death. One way he might consolidate power is to reverse the verdict of June 4. The failure of Jiang or anyone else to consolidate power is likely to slow economic transition.