Abstract
The prediction of rain attenuation statistics is a question of meteorology and probability. Therefore, the possible accuracy of these predictions depends on the knowledge of meteorological mechanisms and data as well as on the statistical uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of meteorological events. Attenuations exceeded for less than 0.1 % of the time within the worst-month are caused by meteorological phenomena which are not well known. Experimental and theoretical investigations show that the inaccuracy is of the same order as the unavoidable statistical uncertainty.
Analyse
La prévision des affaiblissements provoqués par des précipitations relève de la météorologie ainsi que de la statistique. Par conséquent, l’exactitude que l’on peut atteindre dépend des connaissances météorologiques ainsi que de l’incertitude due à la nature stochastique des phénomènes météorologiques. Les affaiblissements dépassés pendant moins de 0,1 % du temps durant le mois le plus défavorable sont causés par des phénomènes relativement mal connus. Des études expérimentales et théoriques montrent que l’inexactitude des prévisions est du même ordre que l’incertitude statistique.
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Debrunner, W.E. The prediction of rain attenuation statistics. Ann. Télécommunic. 35, 439–446 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03003525
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03003525