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Predicting ozone levels

A statistical model for predicting ozone levels in the Shuaiba Industrial Area, Kuwait

  • Review Articles: Special Issue “Ozone”
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Abstract

This paper presents a statistical model that is capable of predicting ozone levels from precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions during daylight hours in the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA) of Kuwait. The model has been developed from ambient air quality data that was recorded for one year starting from December 1994 using an air pollution mobile monitoring station. The functional relationship between ozone level and the various independent variables has been determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. The model contains two terms that describe the dependence of ozone on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane hydrocarbon precursor concentrations, and other terms that relate to wind direction, wind speed, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and solar energy. In the model, the levels of the precursors are inversely related to ozone concentration, whereas SO2 concentration, wind speed and solar radiation are positively correlated. Typically, 63 % of the variation in ozone levels can be explained by the levels of NOx. The model is shown to be statistically significant and model predictions and experimental observations are shown to be consistent. A detailed analysis of the ozone-temperature relationship is also presented; at temperatures less than 27 °C there is a positive correlation between temperature and ozone concentration whereas at temperatures greater than 27 °C a negative correlation is seen. This is the first time a non-monotonic relationship between ozone levels and temperature has been reported and discussed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chemical Engineering Dept., College of Engineering and Petroleum, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, 13060, Safat, Kuwait

    Sabah Abdul-Wahab, Walid Bouhamra & Hisham Ettouney

  2. School of Chemical Engineering, University of Bath, BA2 7AY, Claverton Down, Bath, England

    Bev Sowerby & Barry D. Crittenden

Authors
  1. Sabah Abdul-Wahab
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  2. Walid Bouhamra
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  3. Hisham Ettouney
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  4. Bev Sowerby
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  5. Barry D. Crittenden
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bev Sowerby.

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Abdul-Wahab, S., Bouhamra, W., Ettouney, H. et al. Predicting ozone levels. Environ. Sci. & Pollut. Res. 3, 195–204 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02986958

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02986958

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