Summary
Our understanding of the marine ecosystem is expressed in our ability to predict ecological processes. Several approaches are compared to make such predictions on plankton processes on the basis of aggregated plankton dynamics data in the German Bight, and on assembled process information aggregated in numeric simulation models.
Concentrating on the zooplankton artificial neural nets had the best skill in one case and were followed by statistical models and numeric simulation models. Transferability of the predictions to other systems than the one investigated is inversely organised. Consequences for the management of marine resources are discussed.
Zusammenfassung
Unser Verständnis vom marinen Ökosystem drückt sich in unserer Fähigkeit aus, ökologische Prozesse vorherzusagen. Mehrere Ansätze, Prognosen auf der Basis gesammelter Messdaten aus der Deutschen Bucht zu machen. werden verglichen mit numerischen Simulationsmodellen, die aus einzelnen gemessenen Prozeßdaten abgeleitet wurden. Unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Zooplanktons hatten die künstlichen neuronalen Netze den besten prognostischen Skill, gefolgt von statistischen Modellen und numerischen Simulationsmodellen. Die Übertragbarkeit der Prognosen auf andere Systeme als das untersuchte ist gegenläufig organisiert. Die Konsequenzen für das Management der marinen Ressourcen wird diskutiert.
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Greve, W., Lange, U. Plankton prognoses in the North Sea. Deutsche Hydrographische Zeitschrift 51 (Suppl 10), 155–160 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02933700
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02933700