Abstract
All formerly centrally planned economies record very substantial declines in their social products. The largest drops in production are recorded in Poland and in east Germany (the former GDR), that is, in those countries where the most radical steps towards a market economy were taken in 1990. Thus it looks as though a recession was unavoidable during transition. But what are the conditions that must be fulfilled in order to restore growth potential to these countries? The following article aims first to devise a theoretical picture of a successful transition. The criteria thus obtained are then employed for an analysis of the recessive processes in Poland, the first east European country to start a radical programme of transition. Finally, the recession in Poland is compared with that in the former GDR.
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References
As pointed out by K. Laski: Concepts of Transition in Socialist Economies, paper presented at the Workshop on East-West European Economic Interaction, Tübingen, 10–14 October 1990.
Cf. M. Bhaduri: Makroökonomie, Marburg 1988, pp. 46 ff.
Cf. J. Kornai: The Affinity between Ownership and Coordination Mechanisms, lecture delivered in Moscow, March 1989.
Cf. e.g., L. Stankovsky: Probleme der Außenwirtschaft während der Übergangsphase in Osteuropa, in: Wifo-Monatsberichte, 10/90, pp. 565ff.
D. Lipton, J. Sachs: Creating a Market Economy in Eastern Europe—the Case of Poland, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 1990, pp. 75–133.
The sources employed here are: Programm gospodarczy. Glowne Zalozenia i kierunki, Warsaw, October 1989; “Zalozenia polityki spoleczno-gospodarczej na 1990r”, in: Rzeczpospolita, December 15, 1989, pp. 5 ff; and, above all, the Letter of Intent of the Polish Government to the IMF, partly published in Rzeczpospolita, December 28, 1989, p. 3.
It should be noted that this is not anexpost analysis. It was made for the firsttime by K. Laski in February 1990—ex ante, with the same results; see “Pulapka recesji”, in: Zycie gospodarcze, March 4, 1990, pp. 1 and 4.
Cf. Rzeczpospolita, September 28, 1990, p. 1 (supplement).
A fact emphatically stressed in the autumnal experts' report of the five large economics institutes of October 18, 1990, p. 24.
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Gabrisch, H. Restoring the growth potential of formerly centrally planned economies. Intereconomics 26, 88–94 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02929542
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02929542