Abstract
Oil price increases and the persistent OPEC current account surpluses were considered the main problems of economic development in many industrial and developing countries long after the first oil crisis. Since 1983, however, the OPEC surpluses have been completely absorbed and the official base price of petroleum has fallen for the first time in twenty years, although admittedly in terms of a “strong” dollar. Has the serious damage suffered by oil-importing countries in the two oil shocks been completely neutralised, or are the economies of many countries still strongly influenced by the actions and decisions of the OPEC countries?
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References
Cf. the estimates in OECD: Economic Outlook, Special Supplement, No. 27, 1980, p. 119.
Cf. Sachverständigenrat: Gutachten 1983, p. 27.
Cf. Robert Dunn: Exchange Rates, Payment Adjustment and OPEC: Why Oil Deficits Persist, Essays in International Finance, No. 137, Princeton 1979, pp. 12 ff.
Cf. Renate Ohr: Rückführung der Öl-Dollars nach wie vor aktuell, in: liberal, Vol. 24, 1982, p. 380.
Cf. Stephen Golub: Oil Prices and Exchange Rates, in: The Economic Journal, Vol. 93, 1983, p. 586.
Cf. Bank for International Settlements: Fifty-third Annual Report, 1983, pp. 163 f.
Cf. Table 4. In addition, a large part of the “unidentified” capital inflows into the USA appears to come from the oil-exporting countries: cf. BIS, op. cit., p. 116.
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Ohr, R. International trade in oil: Effects on the balance of payments and exchange rates. Intereconomics 19, 123–128 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02928305
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02928305