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The HWWA econometric model for economic forecasts

  • Economic Trends
  • Published:
Intereconomics

Abstract

Econometric models are often used to forecast economic developments. Does the use of computer-based econometric procedures help sharpen our view of the future or are we blinkered by the supposed ‘precision’ of such models? What problems arise when building national economic models and when these models are used for forecasting purposes? These issues are examined with reference to the HWWA model.

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References

  1. For an overview of the various methods of economic forecasting seeinter alia G. Tichy: Konjunktur, 2nd edition, Berlin, Heidelberg 1994, chapters 8, 9; J. Hinze: Konjunkturprognosen: Was sie leisten können und was nicht, in: Hamburger Jahrbuch für Wirtschafts-und Gesellschaftspolitik, Vol. 32 (1987), pp. 37–47.

  2. U. Westphal: Makroökonomik, 2nd ed., Berlin, Heidelberg et al. 1994, pp. 20 f.

  3. Cf. W. Assenmacher: Konjunkturtheorie, 7th ed., Munich, Vienna 1995, p. 50.

  4. A summary of econometric models can be found in G. Uebe: World of Economic Models: A Catalogue of Typical Specifications of Economic Models, Aldershot et al. 1995.

  5. Cf. W. Assenmacher, op. cit., Konjunkturtheorie, 7th ed., Munich, Vienna 1995 p. 21; U. Westphal, op. cit. Makroökonomik, 2nd ed., Berlin, Heidelberg et al. 1994 chapter 2.

  6. Cf. P. A. Samuelson, W. D. Nordhaus: Economics, 15th ed., New York et al. 1995, p. 571; R. J. Barro: Introduction, in R. J. Barro (ed.): Modern Business Cycle Theory, Oxford 1989, p. 4; G. Tichy, op. cit. Konjunktur, 2nd edition, Berlin, Heidelberg 1994, chapter 8, 9; pp. 144 f; A. Woll: Allgemeine Volkswirtschaftslehre, Munich 1996, p. 566, 568.

  7. Cf. G. Tichy, op. cit. Konjunktur, 2nd edition, Berlin, Heidelberg 1994, chapters 8, 9. p. 211.

  8. Cf. G. Tichy, op. cit. Konjunktur, 2nd edition, Berlin, Heidelber 1994, chapters 8, 9. pp. 213, 245.

  9. Cf. Deutsche Bundesbank: Makro-ökonometrisches Mehr-Länder-Modell, Frankfurt, November 1996.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hamburg, Germany

    Rudolf-Ferdinand Danckwerts & Marion Danckwerts

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  1. Rudolf-Ferdinand Danckwerts
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  2. Marion Danckwerts
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Danckwerts, RF., Danckwerts, M. The HWWA econometric model for economic forecasts. Intereconomics 34, 201–208 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02927849

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