Skip to main content

A note on odds in the cattle futures market


This paper investigates the odds of generating a 100-fold return in the cattle futures market. We employ cattle futures data for the period October 11, 1978, through July 31, 1979, to compute the probability of obtaining such a return. The tests are constructed to give the investor the benefit of the doubt whenever doubt exists. The most conservative finding is that the probability is one in approximately thirty-one trillion. Assuming that the return is made in the most efficient way possible, this probability falls to approximately 1.5×10−16.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.


  1. Chang, Y. Peter. “A Transactions Data Test of Stock Index Futures Market-Efficiency and Index Arbitrage Profitability.”Journal of Finance 46, no. 5 (December 1991): 1791–1809.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Chicago Board of Trade.Commodity Trading Manual. Chicago: Chicago Board of Trade, 1980.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Eabozzi, Frank J., Christopher K. Ma, andJames E. Briley. “Holiday Trading in Futures Markets.”Journal of Finance 49, no. 1 (March 1994): 307–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Holl, John.Options, Futures and other Derivative Securities. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Kumar, Praveen, andDuane J. Seppi. “Futures Manipulation with ‘Cash Settlement’”.Journal of Finance 47, no. 4 (September 1992): 1485–1502.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Well Street Journal. New York: Dow Jones and Company, Inc., 1982–1984.

Download references

Author information



Corresponding author

Correspondence to Seth C. Anderson.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Anderson, S.C., Jackson, J.D. & Steagall, J.W. A note on odds in the cattle futures market. J Econ Finan 18, 357 (1994).

Download citation


  • Price Change
  • Future Market
  • Wall Street Journal
  • Limit Move
  • Future Contract