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A note on odds in the cattle futures market

  • Seth C. Anderson
  • John D. Jackson
  • Jeffrey W. Steagall
Article

Abstract

This paper investigates the odds of generating a 100-fold return in the cattle futures market. We employ cattle futures data for the period October 11, 1978, through July 31, 1979, to compute the probability of obtaining such a return. The tests are constructed to give the investor the benefit of the doubt whenever doubt exists. The most conservative finding is that the probability is one in approximately thirty-one trillion. Assuming that the return is made in the most efficient way possible, this probability falls to approximately 1.5×10−16.

Keywords

Price Change Future Market Wall Street Journal Limit Move Future Contract 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

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Copyright information

© Springer 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  • Seth C. Anderson
    • 1
  • John D. Jackson
    • 2
  • Jeffrey W. Steagall
    • 1
  1. 1.University of North FloridaJacksonville
  2. 2.Auburn UniversityAuburn

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