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Modelling of Indian monsoon rainfall series by univariate box—Jenkins type of models

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Abstract

The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is applied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validted on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411008, Pune, India

    S. D. Dahale & S. V. Singh

Authors
  1. S. D. Dahale
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  2. S. V. Singh
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Additional information

Part of this study is published in LRF Report No 14, Programme on Long Range Forecasting Research, WMO/TD no. 395 (1991), pp. 67–72.

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Dahale, S.D., Singh, S.V. Modelling of Indian monsoon rainfall series by univariate box—Jenkins type of models. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 10, 211–220 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02919143

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02919143

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