Abstract
Identification of small subgroups of high-risk juvenile offenders from the general population to target them for intervention has proved elusive. It is argued that second-time delinquents represent a group that can be efficiently screened for chronic offenders. With a sample of 298 second-time juvenile offenders, both prospective and retrospective risk instruments are found to predict chronic delinquent behavior well. It is proposed that such risk instruments be used to focus benign intervention on high-risk, second-time juvenile offenders.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Altschuler, D. M., & Armstrong, T. L. (1992).Intensive community-based aftercare program: Training manual for action planning conference. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
Altschuler, D. M., & Armstrong, T. L. (1994).Intensive aftercare for high-risk juveniles: A community care model. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
Belsley, D. F. (1991).Conditioning diagnostics: Collinearity and weak data in regression. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J., & Visher, C. (Eds.) (1986).Criminal careers and “career criminals.” (Vol. I). Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences Press.
Blumstein, A., Farrington, D. P., & Moitra, S. (1985). Delinquency careers: Innocents, amateurs, and persisters. In N. Morris & M. Tonry (Eds.),Crime and justice: An annual review of research. (Vol. 6). Chicago: University of Chicago.
Bollen, K., & Jackman, R. W. (1990). Regression diagnostics: An expository treatment of outliers and influential cases. In J. Fox & J. Scott Long (Eds.),Modern methods of data analysis. Newbury Park: Sage.
Brunner, M. S. (1993).Reduced recidivism and increased employment opportunity through research-based reading instruction. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
Copas, J. B., & Tarling, R. (1986). Some methodological issues in making predictions. In A. Blumstein, J. Cohen, J. Roth, & C. Visher (Eds.),Criminal careers and “career criminals.” (Vol. I). Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences Press.
Denno, D. (1985). Sociological and human developmental explanations of crime: Conflict or consensus.Criminology, 23, 711–741.
Farrington, D. P. (1983).Further analyses of a longitudinal survey of crime and delinquency. Cambridge, England: Institute of Criminology.
Farrington, D. P. (1987). Early precursors of frequent offending. In J. Q. Wilson & G. C. Loury (Eds.),From children to citizens: Families, schools, and delinquency prevention (Vol. III) (pp. 27–50). New York: Springer-Verlag.
Farrington, D. P., Loeber, R., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Van Kammen, W. B., & Schmidt, L. (1996). Self-reported delinquency and a combined delinquency seriousness scale based on boys, mothers, and teachers: Concurrent and predictive validity for African-Americans and Caucasians.Criminology, 34, 493–518.
Fergusson, D. M., Fifield, J. K., & Slater, S. W. (1977). Signal detectability theory and the evaluation of prediction tables.Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 14, 237–246.
Gendreau, P., Cullen, F., & Bonta, D. (1994). Intensive rehabilitation supervision: The next generation in community corrections.Federal Probation, 58, 72–79.
Goldkamp, J. S. (1987). Prediction in criminal justice policy development. In D. M. Gottfredson & M. Tonry (Eds.),Prediction and classification: Criminal justice decision making. (Vol. 9) (pp. 103–150). Chicago: University of Chicago.
Gottfredson, D. M., Wilkins, L. T., & Hoffman, P. B. (1978).Guidelines for parole and sentencing. Lexington, MA: Heath.
Gottfredson, S. D. (1987). Prediction: An overview of selected methodological issues. In D. M. Gottfredson & M. Tonry (Eds.),Prediction and classification: Criminal justice decision making. (Vol. 9) (pp. 21–52). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Gottfredson, S. D., & Gottfredson, D. M. (1986). Accuracy of prediction models. In A. Blumstein, J. Cohen, J. Roth, & C. Visher (Eds.).Criminal careers and “career criminals.” (Vol. II) (pp. 212–290). Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences Press.
Greenwood, P. W., & Zimring, F. E. (1985).One more chance: The pursuit of promising intervention strategies for chronic juvenile offenders. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.
Hawkins, J. D., & Catalano, R. F. (1992).Communities that care. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Juvenile Delinquency Commission. (1991).The chronic juvenile offender: A challenge to New Jersey’s juvenile justice system. Trenton, NJ: Juvenile Delinquency Commission.
Krisberg, B., Currie, E., & Onek, D. (1995). What works with juvenile offenders.American Bar Association Journal on Criminal Justice, 10, 20–24.
LeBlanc, M. (1998). Screening of serious and violent juvenile offenders: Identification, classification, and prediction. In R. Loeber & D. P. Farrington (Eds.),Serious and violent juvenile offenders, (pp. 167–196). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Loeber, R., & Dishion, T. J. (1983). Early predictors of male delinquency: A review.Psychology Bulletin, 94, 68–99.
Mednick, S. A., & Christiansen, K. O. (Eds.) (1977).The biosocial bases of criminal behavior. New York: Garden Press.
Moffitt, T. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy.Psychological Review, 100, 674–701.
Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictors of violence: Being accurate about accuracy.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783–792.
Nagin, D., & Farrington, D. P. (1992). The onset and persistence of offending.Criminology, 30, 501–523.
Nash, R. T. (n.d.)Testing the effectiveness of the Project Success Postsecondary Transition Program for Adults with Learning Disabilities. Oshkosh: University of Wisconsin.
Patterson, G. R. (1982).A social learning approach: Coercive family process (Vol. 3). Eugene, OR: Castalia.
Ross, R. R., Fabiano, E. O., & Ewles, C. D. (1988). Reasoning and rehabilitation.International Journal of Offender Therapy, 32, 29–35.
Sampson, R., & Laub, J. (1993).Crime in the making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Smith, W. R. (1996). The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research.Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 12, 83–111.
Smith, W. R., Aloisi, M. F., & Goldstein, H. (1996).Early court intervention: A research and intervention project. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
Snyder, H. N. (1988).Court careers of juvenile offenders. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice.
Tracy, P. E., Wolfgang, M. E., & Figlio, R. M. (1985).Delinquency in two birth cohorts. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Wiebush, R. G., Baird, C., Krisberg, B., & Onek, D. (1995) Risk assessment and classification for serious, violent, and chronic juvenile offenders. In J. C. Howell, B. Krisberg, J. D. Hawkins, & J. J. Wilson (Eds.),Sourcebook on serious, violent, and chronic juvenile offenders. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Wolfgang, M., Figlio, R. M., & Sellin, T. (1972).Delinquency in a birth cohort. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Wolfgang, M., Thornberry, T. P., & Figlio, R. M. (1987).From boy to man, from delinquency to crime. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Smith, W.R., Aloisi, M.F. Prediction of recidivism among “second timers” in the juvenile justice system: Efficiency in screening chronic offenders. Am J Crim Just 23, 201–222 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02887272
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02887272