Global temperature changes: relative importance of greenhouse constituents of the atmosphere as calculated with a 1-d radiative-convective model

Abstract

Most modelling endeavours concerning the CO₂-climate problem address only the question of the climatic response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, while the amounts of other atmospheric gases remain fixed. But associated changes, either climatologically or anthropogenically induced, of minor atmospheric constituents can also be of significance in producing a substantial global warming. We have analysed the climatic response to changes in a number of atmospheric trace gases as they may enhance or counteract CO₂-induced warming if their abundance should change. A comparison of the increase in equilibrium global-mean surface temperature due to plausible changes in the concentration of several trace gases in the atmosphere based on our calculations with a one-dimensional radiative-convective model is presented in this paper. Our results indicate that roughly 35% of global surface warming could be due to changes in trace gases other than CO₂ and water vapour. The possible climatic consequences of the ongoing anthropogenic changes in the minor constituents of the atmosphere are also discussed.