Dynamic prediction of forest fuel loads by Grey Verhulst model

Abstract

The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types,phododendron--Larix gmelinii forest,herb--Larix gmelinii forest andherb--Betula platyphlla forest, in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor, shrub, herbs, grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflammable fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammable fuel loads inphododendron-Lxirix gmelinii forest and in the herb- -Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm² and 10.473 t/hm² respectively, by 13 years later, and that was 12.297 t/hm² inherb--Larix gmelinii forest by 7 years later. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.