Study on prediction model of seed crop ofLarix olgensis seed orchard

Abstract

By taking three forecasting methods (sample trees, sample branches and climate factors prediction) the forecasting equation of seed were established through correlation analysis and regression analysis on seed crop of Qingshan and QinheLarix olgensis seed orchard. The research results showed that it gave more accurate prediction with less working load by taking pistillate numbers of four sample branches at middle layer of crown to predicate seed crop. And the short-term prediction equation of this method was established. The correlation analysis between seed crop and climate factors showed that the relative humidity May and June, annual evaporative amount, and accumulated temperature above 10°C, possess the highest effect on bud differentiation and seed crop, then the middle-term predication equation of climate factors was established.