Abstract
In order to predict the futuristic runoff under global warming, and to approach to the effects of vegetation on the ecological environment of the inland river mountainous watershed of Northwest China, the authors use the routine hydrometric data to create a distributed monthly model with some conceptual parameters, coupled with GIS and RS tools and data. The model takes sub-basin as the minimal confluent unit, divides the main soils of the basin into 3 layers, and identifies the vegetation types as forest and pasture. The data used in the model are precipitation, air temperature, runoff, soil weight water content, soil depth, soil bulk density, soil porosity, land cover, etc. The model holds that if the water amount is greater than the water content capacity, there will be surface runoff. The actual evaporation is proportional to the product of the potential evaporation and soil volume water content. The studied basin is Heihe mainstream mountainous basin, with a drainage area of 10,009 km2. The data used in this simulation are from Jan. 1980 to Dec. 1995, and the first 10 years’ data are used to simulate, while the last 5 years’ data are used to calibrate. For the simulation process, the Nash-Sutcliffe Equation, Balance Error and Explained Variance is 0.8681, 5.4008 and 0.8718 respectively, while for the calibration process, 0.8799, -0.5974 and 0.8800 respectively. The model results show that the futuristic runoff of Heihe river basin will increase a little. The snowmelt, glacier meltwater and the evaportranspiration will increase. The air temperature increment will make the permanent snow and glacier area diminish, and the snowline will rise. The vegetation, especially the forest in Heihe mountainous watershed, could lead to the evapotranspiration decrease of the watershed, adjust the runoff process, and increase the soil water content.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Amell N, Bates B, Lang Het al., 1996. Hydrology and freshwater ecology. In: Watson R Tet al. (eds.), Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 327–328.
Anderson M G, Burt T P, 1985. Modeling strategies. In: M G Anderson, T P Burt (eds.), Hydrological Forecasting. Chichister: John Wiley & Sons, 1–14.
Anderson M G, Burt T P, 1990. Process studies in hillslope hydrology: an overview. In: M G Anderson, T P Burt (eds.), Process Studies in Hillslope Hydrology. Chichister: John Wiley & Sons, 1–8.
Aronica G, Cannarozzo M, 2000. Studying the hydrological response of urban catchments using a semi-distributed liner non-liner model.Journal of Hydrology, 238: 35–43.
Beven K J, Kirkby M J, 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology.Hydrological Science Bulletin, 24: 43–69.
Dooge J C I, 1977. Problems and methods of rainfall-runoff modeling. In: Ciriani T A, Maione U, Wallis J R (eds.), Mathematical Models for Surface Water Hydrology. Chichister: John Wiley & Sons, 71–108.
Feng Q, Cheng G D, Masao M K, 2000. Trends of water resource development and utilization in arid north-west China.Environmental Geology, 39(8): 831–838.
Gautam M R, Watanabe K, Saegusa H, 2000. Runoff analysis in humid forest catchment with artificial neural network.Journal of Hydrology, 235: 117–136.
Hsu, Kuo-lin, Hoshin, Vijai Gupta, Soroosh, Sorooshian, 1995. Artificial neural network modeling of the rainfall-runoff process.Water Resources Research, 31(10): 2517–2530.
Kang Ersi, Cheng Guodong, Lan Yongchaoet al., 1999. A model for simulating the response of runoff from the mountainous watersheds of inland river basins in the arid area of northwest China to climate changes.Science in China (Series D): (supp. 1): 52–63.
Levenberg K, 1944. A method for the solution of certain nonlinear problems in least squares.Quarterly of Applied Mathematics, 2: 164–168.
Loumagne C, Chkir N, Normand M, 1996. Introduction of the soil/vegetation/atmosphere continuum in a conceptual rainfall/runoff model.Hydrological Science Journal, 41(6): 889–902.
Marco Franchini, Michéle Pacciani, 1991. Comparative analysis of several conceptual rainfall-runoff models.Journal of Hydrology, 122: 161–219.
Mark S Wigmosta, Lance W Vail, Dennis P Lettenmaier, 1994. A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain.Water Resources Research, 30(6): 1665–1679.
Nash J E, Sutcliffe J V, 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models: 1. a discussion of principles.Journal of Hydrology, 10: 282–290.
Peter A Taroch, Marco Met al., 1993. Evaluation of a distributed catchments scale water balance model.Water Resources Research, 29(6): 1805–1817.
Ratkovich D Ya, 2000. Current problems of stochastic hydrology.Water Resources, 27(6): 645–654.
Ratkovich D Ya, 1999. Development of probabilistic methods in hydrology.Water Resources, 26(5): 568–582.
Shi Yafeng, Liu Shiyin, 2000. Prediction of responses to global warming of glaciers in China in 21st century.Chinese Science Bulletin, 45(4): 434–438. (in Chinese)
Shi Yafeng, Zhang Xiangsong, 1995. Effects and potential effects of climate change to the water resources in arid area of Northwest China.Science in China (Series B), 25(9): 968–977. (in Chinese)
Singh V P, 1964. Nonlinear instantaneous unit hydrograph theory.J. Hydraul. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 90 (HY2): 313–347.
Sun Guowu, 1977. Researches on the seasonal variation of atmospheric environment of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding area and the Gansu drought. In: Proceedings of Meteorology in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Beijing: Science Press. 129–141. (in Chinese)
Wang Zongtai, Liu Chaohai, You Gengxianget al., 1981. Glacier Inventory of China I, Qilian Mountains, Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, Academia Sinica, 59–119. (in Chinese)
Woolhiser D A, Brakensiek D L, 1986. A classification of models. In: C T Haan, H P Johnson, D L Brakensiek (eds.), Hydrologic Modeling of Small Watersheds. Am. Soc. of Agr. En. Michigan, 6–11.
Yang Daqing, Barry E Goodison, John R Metcalfeet al., 1999. Quantification of precipitation measurement discontinuity induced by wind shields on national gauges.Water Resources Research, 35(2): 491–508.
Yang Zenniang, 1992. Glacier water resources and effect of glacier water in stream runoff in Qilian Mountains. In: Memoirs of Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.7. Beijing: Science Press. 10–20. (in Chinese)
Zhang W C, Katsuro O, Ye B Set al., 2000. A monthly stream flow model for estimating the potential changes of river runoff on the projected global warming.Hydrological Processes, 14: 1851–1868.
Zhou Qinnan, 1983. A study on the source of water vapor for precipitation of Xinjiang. In: Weather in North China, No.4. Beijing: Peking University Press. 179–181. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rensheng, C., Ersi, K., Jianping, Y. et al. A distributed runoff model for inland mountainous river basin of Northwest China. J. Geogr. Sci. 13, 363–372 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02837512
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02837512