Abstract
The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Forecast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.
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Foundation item: Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX-SW-352), Frontier Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS(C3200307) and the Open Foundation of Weather Forecast System Laboratory, National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration.
Biography: GAO Kechang (1977-), male, Ph. D. candidate, research direction: GIS and mountain hazards mitigation research.
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Kechang, G., Fangqiang, W., Peng, C. et al. Probability forecast of regional landslide based on numerical weather forecast. Wuhan Univ. J. Nat. Sci. 11, 853–858 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02830176
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02830176