Forecasting study on demand and supply of medical postgraduates

Summary

This article was designed to forecast the supply and demand of medical postgraduate from 2001 to 2010 and bring forward the development strategy of medical postgraduate education in Hubei province. The line regression, the ratio of health manpower to population, grey dynamics model (1,1) was employed to forecast the supply and demand of medical postgraduate according to the corresponding data from 1991 to 2000 in Hubei province. The results showed that the number of health professionals of Hubei province in 2010 would attain 265892, the graduates’ proportion of which would be about 1.8%; and the demand and supply of medical postgraduate would be 4699 and 2264 respectively. To improve conditions actively to attract and cultivate excellent professionals, especially the senior medical scholars, are effective measures to adjust the degree structure of health manpower as soon as possible in Hubei province.