Schlußwort

Summary

This issue of theBlätter für Versicherungsmathematik is devoted to a survey of the problems of German National Insurance, particularly of the schemes for work people and salaried employees. Some of the papers published herein refer to the theoretical aspect of the matter (e. g. WÜNSCHE), but the main theme is a comprehensive analysis of the„Versicherungstechnische Bilanzen“ (Actuarial balance sheets) as published inDrucksache IV—640 of theBundestag in September 1962. Contrary to what might be expected from the title of that publication, it is not a valuation in the actuarial sense of that term but merely a forecast of the future total of annuities to be expected up to 1986. When German National Insurance was recast in its present shape the opinions as to the future development of the Federal Ministry of Labour, on the one hand, and the actuaries and the Federal Ministry of Finance, on the other hand, differed widely. That difference of opinion has now been resolved and it has become evident that in all essentials the actuaries’ forecast was justified.

Although the official forecast ends with the year 1986 it enables predictions to be made also for the development in later years. Political considerations may lead to the view that “sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof”; but a large and ever increasing proportion of those who at present pay their contributions to National Insurance have a personal interest in knowing what is going to happen during the first half of the coming century.

The papers contained in this issue (e. g.Fischer, Heubeck) show that the total of annuities to be paid will absorb a steadily increasing percentage of all individual earnings until about 1980; owing to the two world wars, the increase will then stop for a certain time, but later on a new increase will follow, up to a level of 30 p. c. of those earnings or more. A comparison with other arrangements, e. g. the pensions for civil servants, shows that this is not an unduly pessimistic forecast. That development has two roots; viz. on the one hand the future development of the German population as such, on the other hand the expansion of National Insurance within that population. There is only one possible counter effect, namely inflation (discussed byLuzius-Sachs). Since the annuities follow automatically the level of earnings, but only with a lag of several years, inflation could lessen the pressure exercised by the total of annuity payments, but, of course, only at the expense of the annuitants.

It is already necessary now to inform all those concerned, particularly persons of younger age who are now obliged to pay contributions towards National Insurance, that even the possibilities of the State have their limits.