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Risk of death from acute pancreatitis

Role of early, simple “routine” data

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Summary

Conclusions

The analysis of all the data available in 192 patients at 24 h from admission shows that only serum glucose above 250 mg/dL (13.88 mmol/L) and serum creatinine above 2 mg/dL (176.8 μmol/L) are prognostic factors of death (P<0.0001). When, however, pathological chest X-rays are also considered in a subset of 149 patients, these and serum creatinine are prognostic factors of death with odds ratios of 2.9 (95% CL 1.3–6.3) and 9.4 (95% CL 2.2–40.7), respectively (P<0.0001).

Background

In patients suffering from acute pancreatitis, neither Ranson scores nor Glasgow criteria evaluation at 24 h yield a sufficiently reliable prognosis of the risk of death from the first acute attack.

Methods

After excluding posttraumatic, postsurgical, and post-ERCP acute pancreatitis, we selected 192 consecutive patients admitted in the first instance to our center for a first attack, distinguishing between patients who died and patients who survived. We used Cox's model to analyze the prognostic weight of variables available within 24 h of admission (sex, age, alcohol intake, smoking habits, 17 biochemical tests, body mass index, chest X-rays, body temperature, and shock status).

Results

Seventeen (8.8%) patients died; mortality showed a decreasing trend over the period of years considered and was correlated, among other things, with necrotizing type of pancreatitis, idiopathic etiology, and shock status on admission.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Gastroentology Unit, University of Verona, Italy

    Giorgio Talamini, Luca Frulloni, Vincenzo Di Francesco & Giorgio Cavallini

  2. Surgical Department, University of Verona, Italy

    Claudio Bassi, Massimo Falconi, Nora Sartori, Sergio Vesentini & Paolo Pederzoli

Authors
  1. Giorgio Talamini
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  2. Claudio Bassi
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  3. Massimo Falconi
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  4. Nora Sartori
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  5. Luca Frulloni
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  6. Vincenzo Di Francesco
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  7. Sergio Vesentini
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  8. Paolo Pederzoli
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  9. Giorgio Cavallini
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Talamini, G., Bassi, C., Falconi, M. et al. Risk of death from acute pancreatitis. International Journal of Pancreatology 19, 15–24 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02788371

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02788371

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