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Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability

Rekrutierungserfolg verschiedener FischbestÄnde in der Nordsee in Beziehung zur KlimavariabilitÄt

  • Interannual and Decadal Variability
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Summary

Long-term data of year class strengths of different commercially harvested fish stocks based on a virtual population analysis (VPA) are available from ICES. The anomalies of these long-term data sets of year class strength are analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and are related to climate variability: the anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern North Sea and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between the leading eigenmodes is performed. The results suggest that the variability in the fish recruitment of western mackerel and three gadoids, namely North Sea cod, North Sea saithe, and North Sea whiting is highly correlated to the variability of the North Sea SST which is directly influenced by the NAO. For North Sea haddock and herring no meaningful correlation exists to North Sea SST and NAO.

The results allow the conclusion that is seems possible to predict long-term changes in the fish recruitment from climate change scenarios for North Sea cod, North Sea saithe and western mackerel. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of recruitment failure for North Sea cod, North Sea whiting, and western mackerel in the case of global warming.

Zusammenfassung

Beim ICES existieren Langzeitreihen der JahrgangsstÄrken verschiedener kommerziell gefangener FischbestÄnde, die auf der Basis von virtueller Populationsanalyse (VPA) erstellt wurden. Die Anomalien dieser Langzeitreihen werden mit empirischen Orthogonalfunktionen (EOFs) analysiert und in Beziehung zur KlimavariabilitÄt gesetzt. Betrachtet werden als Klimaindikator die Anomalien der OberflÄchentemperaturen (SST) der Nordsee und der Nordatlantische Oszillationsindex (NAO). Eine kanonische Korrelationsanalyse (CCA) wird zwischen den führenden Eigenmoden durchgeführt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, da\ die VariabilitÄt in der Rekrutierung von westlicher Makrele, Kabeljau, Köhler und Wittling hoch korreliert ist mit der VariabilitÄt der Nordsee SST, die wiederum in direktem Zusammenhang zum NAO steht. Für Schellfisch und Hering konnte kein Zusammenhang zur KlimavariabilitÄt gefunden werden.

Die Ergebnisse erlauben die Folgerung, da\ es für Kabeljau, Köhler und westliche Makrele möglich erscheint, LangzeitverÄnderungen in der Rekrutierung aus KlimaÄnderungsszenarien vorherzusagen. Weiterhin lÄ\t sich aus den Ergebnissen schlu\folgern, da\ im Fall einer globalen ErwÄrmung mit einem Zusammenbruch in der Rekrutierung von Kabeljau, Wittling und westlicher Makrele zu rechnen ist.

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  1. Joachim W. Dippner

    Present address: Institute für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde, Seestrabe 15, D-18119, Rostock

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  1. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorogie, Bundesstra 55, D-20146, Hamburg

    Joachim W. Dippner

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Dippner, J.W. Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability. Deutsche Hydrographische Zeitschrift 49, 277–293 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02764039

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