Abstract
We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size, if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Betlehem, A. (1997)Estimates of current and historical stock sizes for use in the evaluation of the impact of experimental fishing programs on the southern bluefin tuna population. Document for the Scientific Committee of the Convention for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), 23 September, 1997, 28 July-8 August, 1997, Cambera, Australia, CCSBT-SC/9707/23.
Hayes, E. A. (1997)A review of the southern bluefin tuna fishery: Implications for ecologically sustainable management. TRAFFIC Oceania and WWF, Sydney.
IUCN (1994) IUCN Red List Categories. Pages 1–21. prepared by the IUCN species survival commission as approved by the 40th meeting of the IUCN Council Gland, Switzerland.
Klaer, N., T. Polacheck, A. Preece, A. Betlehem and T. Jones (1997)Assessment of the probability of recovery under different catch scenarios and the effect of resolving uncertainries in the SBT assessment. Document for the Scientific Committee of the Convention for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), 23 September, 1997, 28 July-8 August, 1997, Cambera, Australia, CCSBT-SC/9707/28.
Lande R. (1988) Demographic models of the northern spotted owl(Strix occidentalis, caurina).Oecologia 75: 601–607.
Lande, R. and S. H. Orzack (1988) Extinction dynamics of agestructured populations in a fluctuating environment.Proceeding of the National Academy of Science of the USA 85: 7418–7421.
Mace G. M. and R. Lande (1991) Assessing extinction threats: toward a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories.Conservation Biology 5: 148–157.
Mace G. M. and S. N. Stuart (1994) Draft IUCN Red List Categories, Version 2.2.Species 21–22: 13–24.
Mace G. N., N. Collar, J. Cooke, K. Gaston, J. Ginsberg, N. Leader Williams, M. Maunder and E. J. Milner-Gulland (1992) The development of new criteria for listing species on the IUCN Red List.Species 19: 16–22.
Matsuda, H., T. Yahara and Y. Uozumi (1997) Is the tuna critically endangered? Extinction risk of a large and overexploited population,Ecological Research 12: 345–356.
Nishida, T. and S. Tsuji (1997)Estimation of abundance indices for southern bluefin tuna(Thunnus maccoyii) based on the coarse scale Japanese longlinr fihseries data (1969–96). Document for the Scientific Committee of the Convension for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), 28 July-8 August, 1997, Cambera, Australia, CCSBT-SC/9707/14.
Polacheck T., K. Sainsbury and N. Klaer (1995)Assessment of the status of the southern bluefin tuna stock using virtual population analysis. Document for the first meeting of the Scientific Committee of the Convension for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), 10–19 July 1995, Shimizu-shi, Japan, SBFWS/ 95/17.
Shaffer, M. L. (1990) Population viability analysis.Conservation Biology 4: 39–40.
Shaffer M. L. and F. B. Samson (1985) Population size and extinction: A note on determining critical population size.American Naturalist 125: 144–152.
Yahara, T., T. Kato, K. Inoue, M. Yokota, Y. Kadono, S. Serizawa, H. Takahashi, N. Kawakubo, H. Nagamasu, K. Suzuki, K. Ueda and Y. Kadota (1998) Red List of Japanese Vascular Plants: Summary of methods and results,Proceedings of Japanese Society of Plant Taxonomists 13: 89–96.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Matsuda, H., Takenaka, Y., Yahara, T. et al. Extinction risk assessment of declining wild populations: The case of the southern Bluefin Tuna. Res Popul Ecol 40, 271–278 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02763458
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02763458