Journal of Economics and Finance

, Volume 29, Issue 3, pp 391–402 | Cite as

Odds-setting efficiency in gambling markets: Evidence from the PGA TOUR

  • Stephen Shmanske
Sports Symposium


This paper describes the gambling market for PGA TOUR events for the 2002 season. The extent to which the odds predict the outcome is examined, illustrating how much information is captured in the odds and whether there are any identifiable biases in the odds. The overall implied profit to the casino is calculated as well as the returns to several naive betting strategies. By splitting the sample based on whether or not Tiger Woods is in the tournament, a “Tiger Woods effect” or a “thin market versus thick market effect” can be examined. On the whole, efficient markets propositions hold up, but the overwhelming share of the variation in the tournament outcome remains unexplained.


Point Spread Tour Medium Winning Strategy Horse Racing Implied Price 
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Copyright information

© Springer 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsCalifornia State UniversityEast Bay

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