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A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations

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Zusammenfassung

Ein überblick über neuere Arbeiten auf dem Gebiet der Inflationserwartungen. — Die deterministischen Modelle der Inflationserwartungen werden untersucht, wobei die Hypothesen der adaptiven, adaptiv-regressiven und rationalen Erwartungen zugrunde gelegt werden. Direkte Ma\e für Preiserwartungen in drei Landern (Ergebnisse von Befragungen sowie finanzielle Indikatoren) werden im Hinblick auf ihre VorhersagefÄhigkeit, charakteristischen Eigenschaften und Verzögerungen im Lernproze\ analysiert. Diese Ma\e erlauben eine Unterscheidung zwischen der Bildung und der Auswirkung von Preiserwartungen in Lohngleichungen, was nicht möglich ist, wenn man AnnÄherungswerte für die zeitlich verteilten Verzögerungen verwendet. Empirische Befunde deuten darauf hin, da\ die Nominallöhne sowohl auf Preiserwartungen als auch auf frühere unerwartete Preissteigerungen reagieren. Sie stützen kaum die Hypothese der natürlichen Rate der Arbeitslosigkeit, wohl aber die These, da\ die Ersatzvariablen für ex-post-Erwartungen in komplexeren Modellen behandelt werden sollten.

Résumé

Une revue des études récentes sur le sujet des expectatives d’inflation. — Nous examinons l’approche de modèle déterministe des expectatives d’inflation en utilisant des hypothèses d’expectative adaptive, adaptive-régressive et rationelle. Nous analysons des mesures directes des expectatives de prix dans trois pays (des enquÊtes par sondage et des indicateurs financiers) en ce qui concerne la capacité de pronostic, les caractéristiques du comportement et les retardements d’apprendre. Ces mesures permettent une distinction entre la formation et l’impact des expectatives de prix dans les équations de salaire qui n’est pas possible si des retardements distribués approximatifs sont utilisés. L’évidence empirique suggère que les salaires nominaux répondent aux expectatives de prix aussi bien qu’à l’inflation pas anticipée dans le passé et donne peu de support pour l’hypothèse de taux naturel, mais un support sans équivoque pour la construction des modèles plus complexes des variables approximatives des expectatives ex post.

Resumen

Una revista al trabajo reciente en el área de las expectativas inflacionarias. — Se examina el uso de modelos determinísticos para las expectativas inflacionarias mediante la aplicación de hipotesis adaptivas, adaptivo-regresivas y de expectativas rationales. Se analizan las mediciones directas de expectativas de precios en tres países (usando datos muestrales e indicadores financieros) para la habilidad de predictión, características de comportamiento y retardos de aprendizaje. Estas medidas permiten hacer una distinción entre la formación y el impacto de expectativas de precios sobre ecuaciones salariales, lo que no es posible utilizando aproximaciones de retardos distribuidos. La evidencia empirica sugiere que los salarios nominales responden tanto a las expectativas de precios como a la inflación pasada no anticipada y proporciona poco apoyo a la hipótesis de la tasa natural y un apoyo sin ambiguedades a la construcción de modelos más complejos de aproximaciones ex-post de expectativas.

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  1. James H. Chan-Lee
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Chan-Lee, J.H. A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 116, 45–86 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02719612

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