Zusammenfassung
Internationale Verschiebungen der Geldnachfrage — ihre Effekte auf Wechselkurse und Preisniveau sowie die Implikationen für die Politik der vorangekündigten Geldmengenexpansion. — SpÄtestens die Erfahrungen des Jahres 1978 haben einer breiteren öffentlichkeit deutlich gemacht, da\ eine Politik der vorangekündigten Geldmengenexpansion durch internationale Verschiebungen der Geldnachfrage — insbesondere in sehr offenen Volkswirtschaften — vor schwierige Probleme gestellt werden kann. Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert diese Probleme theoretisch und empirisch und vergleicht verschiedene AnsÄtze zu ihrer Lösung.
Nach einer kurzen Kritik der bisherigen empirischen Untersuchungen wird anhand eines einfachen Modells für sieben WÄhrungen zu messen versucht, welchen Einflu\ internationale Verschiebungen der Geldnachfrage auf Inflation und WechselkursÄnderungen ausgeübt haben. Im Falle der Deutschen Mark, des Schweizer Franken und des Pfunds Sterling können erhebliche Verschiebungen nachgewiesen werden; die funktionale Beziehung ist aber nicht so stabil, da\ eine die Verschiebungen berücksichtigende antizipatorische oder konstatierende Rückkoppelungsregel hinreichenden Erfolg versprÄche. Auch können z.B. nominale oder reale WechselkursÄnderungen — selbst wenn sie erheblich sind — nicht ohne weiteres als Indikator für einen Anpassungsbedarf bei der Geldpolitik dienen. Statt dessen müssen mehrere Kriterien herangezogen werden, die jedoch nur dann ohne Zielverletzung berücksichtigt werden können, wenn das Geldmengenziel als Bandbreite formuliert wird.
Résumé
Les déplacements internationaux de la demande de monnaie — leurs effets sur les taux de change et le niveau de prix aussi bien que les conséquences pour la politique de l’expansion préannoncée de la masse monétaire. — Les expériences de l’année 1978 au plus tard ont rendu clair à une publicité plus large qu’une politique de l’expansion préannoncée de masse monétaire peut Être confrontée avec des problèmes difficiles — particulièrement dans des économies très ouvertes— par les déplacements internationaux de la demande de monnaie. Cet article analyse ces problèmes théoriquement et empiriquement et compare des différentes options politiques pour les résoudre.
Après une critique brève des analyses empiriques faites jusqu’ à présent nous essayons de mesurer pour sept monnaies avec un modèle simple quelle influence les déplacements internationaux de la demande de monnaie ont exercé sur l’inflation et sur les changements des taux de change. En cas du mark allemand, du franc suisse et de la livre sterling nous pouvons démontrer des déplacements considérables mais la relation fonctionnelle n’est pas tellement stabile qu’un règle de réaction qui anticipe ou constate les déplacements permettrait assez de succès. De plus, les changements des taux de change nominaux ou réels — mÊme s’ils sont considérables — ne peuvent pas sans faÇons servir comme indicateur de la politique monétaire. Au contraire plusieurs critères doivent Être consultés, qui cependant ne peuvent Être considérés sans rater le but que dans le cas où le but monétaire soit formulé comme marge.
Resumen
Movimientos internacionales en la demanda monetaria — Sus efectos en el tipo de cambio y nivel general de precios asi como sus implicaciones para una política de preanuncio de expansión monetaria. — Ultimamente las experiencias del año 1978 han puesto de manifiesto a un amplio sector de la opinión publica que una política de anuncio previo de expansión monetaria puede encontrar graves problemas debido a movimientos internacionales en la demanda monetaria; particularmente en economías muy abiertas. El presente trabajo analiza este problema teórica y empiricamente y compara diferentes intentos de solucionarlo.
Después de un corto análisis crítico de las existentes investigaciones empíricas, se intenta, utilizando simples modelos para siete diferentes monedas nacionales, quantificar la influencia que movimientos internacionales en la demanda monetaria haya tenido sobre la tasa de inflación y cambios en el tipo de cambio. En el caso del Marco alemán, Franco suizo y Libra esterlina desplazamientos considerables pueden demostrarse; pero la relación funcional no es la suficientemente estable como para que una norma anticipatoria o confirmativa, que tome en consideration estos desplazamientos pueda tener un éxito suficiente. Tampoco los cambios reales o nominales en el tipo de cambio pueden considerarse como indicadores de una necesidad de adaptamiento de la política monetaria, incluso en el caso de que estos cambios sean considerables. En su lugar, uno debiera referirse a más de un criterio y el objetivo monetario definirse en términos de un intervalo.
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Roland, V. International shifts in the demand for money, their effects on exchange rates and price levels, and their implications for the preannouncement of monetary expansion. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 116, 1–44 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02719611
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02719611