Zusammenfassung
Trends und Zufallsschwankungen realer Wechselkurse. —Mit Hilfe von Zeitreihen, die die bilateralen Wechselkurse für die Periode fixer und flexibler Kurse wiedergeben, wird in dieser Arbeit gezeigt, daß die Änderungen der realen Wechselkurse nicht transitorisch, sondern dauerhaft sind. Wenn Geld im Rahmen dauerhafter realer Änderungen im wesentlichen neutral ist, dann ergibt sich daraus, daß(i) die beobachteten größeren Schwankungen der realen Wechselkurse durch reale Störungen verursacht werden,(ii) die realen Störungen sich häufig verändern und(iii) die Geldpolitik wenig dazu beitragen kann, den Pfad des realen Wechselkurses zu beeinflussen.
Résumé
Tendances et mouvements aléatoires des taux de change réels. -En utilisant des séries chronologiques des taux de change réels bilatéraux pendant les périodes des taux de change fixes et flottants, cet article démontre que les changements du taux de change réel ne sont pas d'une nature transitoire mais permanente. Si la monnaie est essentiellement neutre en contexte des changements permanents réels l'évidence suggère que(i) les grandes fluctuations en taux de change réels sont causées par des perturbances réelles,(ii) les perturbances réelles changent souvent et(iii) la politique monétaire ne peut pas faire beaucoup pour influencer le mouvement du taux de change réel.
Resumen
Tendencias y «random walk» de tipos cambio reales. -Utilizando series de tiempo de tipos de cambio reales bilaterales pertenecientes a períodos con sistemas de cambios fijos y flexibles, este trabajo muestra que las variaciones del tipo de cambio real no son transitorias sino de naturaleza permanente. Si el dinero es esencialmente neutral en el contexto de variaciones permanentes en términos reales, la evidencia sugiere que(i) las mayores fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio real observadas son causadas por perturbaciones reales subyacentes,(ii) las perturbaciones reales varían frecuentemente, y(iii) la política monetaria no influye sobre la trayectoria del tipo de cambio real.
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Junge, G. Trends and random walks of real exchange rates. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 121, 427–437 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02708181
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02708181