Zusammenfassung
Makroökonomische Bestimmungsgründe für Australiens Zahlungsbilanz 1977–1986. - In dieser Studie wird versucht, die wichtigsten makroökonomischen Bestimmungsgründe für Australiens Zahlungsbilanzdefizit wÄhrend der Periode des Crawlingpeg und der floatenden Wechselkurse zwischen 1977 und 1986 zu ermitteln. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen, da▾ trotz ziemlich schneller Anpassung (worauf die geringe Diskrepanz zwischen den Koeffizienten im Ungleichgewichts- und im Gleichgewichtsmodell hindeuten) ein fundamentales Ungleichgewicht in Australiens Zahlungsbilanz besteht, das hauptsÄchlich vom Terms-of-trade-Schock und vom internen Schock gro▾er Staatsausgaben herrührt. Auch unter dem Regime flexibler Wechselkurse trugen weder die realen Wechselkurse noch die realen Zinsen in statistisch signifikanter Weise zur ErklÄrung des Defizits bei. Ein auf mittlere Sicht haltbares Zahlungsbilanzziel lÄ▾t sich erreichen, wenn die Industrie umstrukturiert wird und ArbeitsmarktrigiditÄten beseitigt werden, die mit floatenden Wechselkursen unvereinbar sind.
Résumé
Macro-déterminants du compte courant de l’Australie en 1977–1986. - Dans cet article une taxonomie des déterminants principaux macro-économiques du déficit en compte courant de l’Australie pendant le régime de “crawling peg” et de taux de change flottant entre 1977 et 1986 est essayée. Les résultats empiriques révèlent qu’en dépit d’un ajustement assez rapide - comme suggéré par la petite différence entre les coéfficients du modèle déséquilibre et équilibre — un déséquilibre fondamental reste dans le compte courant de l’Australie qui résulte principalement du choc en termes d’échange et du choc interne des grandes dépenses gouvernementales. En dépit du régime de taux de change flexible ni le taux de change réel ni le taux d’intérÊt réel ne peuvent pas expliquer le déficit statistiquement significativement. La réalisation d’un but de compte courant soutenable en terme moyen est prévue s’il y a une restructuration de l’industrie et une réduction des rigidités sur le marché de main d’oeuvre qui ne sont pas compatibles avec le régime de taux de change flottant.
Resumen
Determinantes macroeconómicos de la cuenta corriente de Australia (1977–1986). - En este trabajo se intenta realizar una taxonomía de las determinantes macroeconómicas más importantes del déficit de cuenta corriente de Australia durante el régimen de cambio de “crawling peg” y flotante en la década 1977–1986. Los resultados empíricos revelan que a pesar de un ajuste bastante rápido, sugerido por la pequeña discrepancia entre los coeficientes del modelo de desequilibrio y de equilibrio, aÚn persiste en Australia un desequilibrio fundamental en el déficit de la cuenta corriente que tiene su origen especialmente en el shock externo de términos de intercambio y en el shock interno proveniente del alto gasto pÚblico. A pesar del régimen de cambio flexible ni la tasa de cambio real ni la tasa de interés real resultaron ser determinantes del déficit estadísticamente significantes. La realización de una meta de cuenta corriente sostenible en el mediano plazo dependerá de la reestructuración industrial y de la superación de las rigideces del mercado laboral que son incongruentes con el régimen de tasa de cambio flotante.
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Karunaratne, N.D. Macro-economic determinants of Australia’s current account, 1977–1986. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 124, 713–728 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707772
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707772