Zusammenfassung
“Wirkliche öffnung”: Die Analyse der Handelsliberalisierung im Rahmen eines Modells des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts. - Das kürzlich entwickelte Konzept der “wirklichen Protektion” wird in diesem Beitrag für die Analyse des Abbaus von Handelsschranken genutzt. Dabei werden die Bedingungen aufgezeigt, unter denen es zu absoluten Preissteigerungen (-Senkungen) der Binnengüter bzw. zu einer Abwertung (Aufwertung) des realen Wechselkurses kommt. Au▾erdem werden die Wirkungen von Einkommenseffekten prÄzisiert. Der Vergleich verschiedener Wechselkursregime, unter denen eine Liberalisierung stattfinden kann, führt zu einer eindeutigen PrÄferenz für flexible Wechselkurse, die mit freiem Kapitalverkehr verbunden sind. Daher spricht einiges dafür, da▾ eine Liberalisierung des Kapitalverkehrs dem Abbau von Protektion im Handel vorausgehen sollte.
Résumé
“Vraie exposition”: l’analyse de la libéralisation du commerce international en cadre de l’équilibre général. - Cet article applique le concept récemment développé de la “vraie protection” pour une analyse des effets de la libéralisation du commerce international. L’auteur discute les conditions sous lesquelles le niveau de prix des biens non-commerciables accroÎt (décroÎt) ou le taux de change réel dévalorise (revalorise). De plus, l’effet des changements de revenu est analysé. Une comparaison des régimes alternatifs de taux de change sous lesquelles la libéralisation du commerce peut se passer démontre clairement la supériorité d’ un taux de change flexible avec des mouvements libres des capitaux internationaux. Cela pourrait indiquer qu’il faut libérer les mouvements des capitaux internationaux avant la libéralisation du commerce extérieur.
Resumen
Exposición al riesgo: el análisis de la liberalización del comercio en un marco de equilibrio general. - En este trabajo se utiliza el concepto de “protección verdadera”, desarrollado recientemente, en un análisis de los efectos de la liberalización del comercio. Se discuten las condiciones bajo las cuales el nivel de precios de bienes no transables aumenta (disminuye) o la tasa de cambio real es devaluada (revaluada). Asimismo, se analiza el impacto de cambios en el nivel de ingresos. Una comparación de regímenes de cambio alternativos bajo los cuales puede tener lugar una liberalización del comercio demuestra sin ambiguedades la superioridad de una tasa de cambio flexible con un libre movimiento internacional de capitales. Esto puede indicar que la liberalización del movimiento internacional de capitales debiera preceder a la liberalización del comercio.
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Sell, F.L. “True exposure”: The analysis of trade liberalization in a general equilibrium framework. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 124, 635–652 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707767
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707767