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A structural portfolio balance model of the Sterling-Dollar exchange rate

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Zusammenfassung

Ein Strukturmodell des vermögenstheoretischen Ansatzes zur ErklÄrung des Pfund-Dollar-Wechselkurses. — In diesem Aufsatz wird eine Variante des vermögenstheoretischen Ansatzes zur Bestimmung des Wechselkurses in seiner Strukturform auf den Pfund-Dollar-Kurs des Zeitraums 1973–1982 angewandt. Dabei wird die Methodologie von Brainard und Tobin benutzt, wodurch sichergestellt wird, da\ die Koeffizienten bestimmten Restriktionen genügen. GeschÄtzt wird das Modell sowohl mit der Kleinst-Quadrate-Methode als auch mit dem Theil-Goldberger-Verfahren der gemischten SchÄtzungen. Mehrere Aktiva-Schocks werden simuliert und die Reaktionen der ZinssÄtze und der Wechselkurse aufgezeigt.

Résumé

Un modèle structurel de «portfolio balance» du taux de change Sterling-Dollar.- Dans cet article les auteurs appliquent la structure d’une version de l’approche de «portfolio balance» à la détermination du taux de change sterling-dollar sur la période 1973–1982. Dans le modèle, la méthodologie de Brainard et Tobin est utilisée qui garantit que les restrictions nécessaires d’addition sont satisfaites. Les méthodes des moindres carrés ordinaires aussi bien que les procédures d’estimation mixte de Theil-Goldberger sont appliquées pour estimer le modèle. Les auteurs simulent un nombre des chocs d’actif et illustrent la réponse des taux d’intérÊt et du taux de change.

Resumen

Un modelo «portfolio balance» estructural del tipo de cambio entre la libra esterlina y el dólar. - En este trabajo se presenta una versión del modelo de «portfolio balance» para determinar el tipo de cambio, que es implementado estructuralmente para el tipo libra esterlina - dólar en el período 1973–1982. En la implementación de este modelo se utiliza la metodología de Brainard y Tobin, que garantiza la consistencia de las restricciones. Con el fin de estimar el modelo se aplica tanto el método de cuadrados mínimos como también el método mixto de Theil y Goldberger. Se llevan a cabo varias simulaciones a base de shocks de activos para ilustrar la reacción de las tasas de interés y del tipo de cambio.

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Authors
  1. Colm Kearney
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  2. Ronald MacDonald
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Kearney, C., MacDonald, R. A structural portfolio balance model of the Sterling-Dollar exchange rate. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 122, 478–496 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707375

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