Abstract
Estimating the Size of the Potential Market for the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms. — The Kyoto Protocol incorporates three flexibility mechanisms to help Annex I countries to meet their Kyoto targets at a lower overall cost. This paper aims to estimate the size of the potential market for all three mechanisms over the first commitment period. Based on the national communications from 35 Annex I countries, it first estimates the potential demand in the greenhouse gas offset market. Then, it assesses the implications of the EU proposal for ceilings on the use of flexibility mechanisms. Finally, using the model based on the marginal abatement costs of 12 regions, the paper estimates the contributions of flexibility mechanisms to meet the total emissions reductions required of Annex I countries under the four trading scenarios.
Zusammenfassung
GeschÄtzter Umfang des potentiellen Marktes für die Kyoto-FlexibilitÄtsma\nahmen. — Das Kyoto-Protokoll enthÄlt drei FlexibilitÄtsmechanismen, die es den im Anhang I genannten LÄndern erlauben sollen, die Kyoto-Ziele zu niedrigeren Gesamtkosten zu realisieren. Der Artikel will den Umfang des potentiellen Marktes für alle drei Mechanismen über die erste Verpflichtungsperiode schÄtzen. Gestützt auf die nationalen Verlautbarungen von 35 LÄndern schÄtzt der Autor als Erstes die potentielle Nachfrage auf dem Markt für Ma\nahmen, mit denen die Diskrepanz zwischen wahrscheinlicher und angestrebter Treibhausgasmenge aufgefangen werden soll. Dann wird ermittelt, welche Implikationen sich aus dem EU-Vorschlag über eine Obergrenze beim Einsatz von FlexibilitÄtsma\nahmen ergeben. Schlie\lich wird im Rahmen von vier Handelsszenarien abgeschÄtzt, welchen Beitrag die FlexibilitÄtsma\nahmen liefern, wenn es darum geht, dass Anhang-I-LÄnder die gesamten Emissionen reduzieren. Dabei wird ein Modell benutzt, dem die Grenzkosten der Emissionsvermeidung in 12 Regionen zugrunde liegen.
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