Abstract
The Impact of EMU on Trade Flows. — In this paper we quantify the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows within the EU with the help of a gravity trade model. We consider bilateral instead of total exports, and we use panel data. Moreover, we introduce dynamics into the model, taking lagged exports as explanatory variable. The estimation of this model for the period 1962–1995 leads to significant negative coefficients for the proxy of exchange rate variability. We use these estimates to calculate the potential trade-creating effect of a monetary union, setting the exchange rate volatility equal to zero.
Zusammenfassung
Der Einfluss der EuropÄischen WÄhrungsunion auf die Handelsströme. — In diesem Artikel wird mithilfe eines Handelsmodells, dem der GravitÄtsansatz zugrunde liegt, quantifiziert, wie sich Wechselkursschwankungen auf die Handelsströme innerhalb der EU auswirken. Statt aggregierter werden bilaterale Exporte verwendet und in Form eines Panel-Daten-Modells geschÄtzt. Eine Dynamik wird in das Modell insofern eingebaut, als die verzögerten Exporte als erklÄrende Variable verwendet werden. Die SchÄtzung des Modells für die Periode 1962–1995 ergibt signifikante negative Koeffizienten für die verzögerte Variable der Wechselkursschwankungen. Setzt man diese Schwankungen gleich null, lÄsst sich mithilfe der SchÄtzungen der mögliche Umfang des Handel schaffenden Effektes der WÄhrungsunion ermitteln.
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