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Sind die erwartungen der wirtschaftssubjekte „rational” ? eine empirische untersuchung für die bundesrepublik Deutschland

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Summary

Are the expectations of the economic agents “rational” ? — Based on poll data of the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach ex post predictions of the growth rate of real GNP of the Federal Republic of Germany for the years 1969 to 1981 are constructed. These predictions are compared with predictions of the German Council of Economic Experts (SachverstÄndigenrat) and of the five institutes of economic research organized in the Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute. It is shown that all of these predictions are unbiased and that the prediction errors are not autocorrelated. Moreover, compared with the other predictions the Allensbach predictions are efficient. Therefore, they satisfy the conditions not only of weak but also of strong rationality.

Résumé

Les expectatives des sujets économiques sont-elles «rationelles»? — Depuis 1949 l’Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach questionne à la fin de chaque année des personnes d’un échantillon représentatif de la population de l’Allemagne de l’Ouest et de Berlin-Ouest sur leur évaluation de l’année prochaine. Appuyé sur les résultats de ces sondages l’auteur a calculé, à l’aide des pronostics ex-post, des valeurs de pronostic pour le taux de croissance du produit national brut réel de l’Allemagne des années 1969 à 1981. Il démontre que ces valeurs satisfont non seulement à la condition de la rationalité faible, c.v.d. qu’elles ne sont pas biaisées, mais qu’elles sont aussi efficientes en comparaison des pronostics du Conseil d’Experts Economiques (SachverstÄndigenrat) et des Rapports Conjoints des cinq instituts de recherche économique. Suivant les tests dans cet article, ces pronostics satisfont aussi à la condition de la rationalité forte.

Resumen

¿ Son «racionales» las expectativas de los sujetos econömicos ? — El Institute Demoscöpico Allensbach encuesta desda 1949 a fines de cada año a una muestra representativa de la poblaciön de la RepÚblica Federal de Alemania y Berlin Oeste en relaciön a su evaluaciön de las perspectivas del nuevo año. Con los resultados de estas encuestas y con la ayuda de pronösticos ex-post se calcularon valores de pronöstico para las tasas de crecimiento del producto social bruto para los años desde 1969 a 1981. Se muestra que estos pronösticos no sölo cumplen con la condiciön de débil racionalidad, es decir, que no están distorsionados, sino que, comparados con las pronösticos del Consejo de Expertos (SachverstÄndigenrat) y los pronösticos conjuntos de los cinco institutes de investigatiön econömica, también son eficientes. De acuerdo con las pruebas realizadas aqui estos pronösticos cumplen asi con la condiciön de fuerte racionalidad.

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  1. Gebhard KirchgÄssner
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KirchgÄssner, G. Sind die erwartungen der wirtschaftssubjekte „rational” ? eine empirische untersuchung für die bundesrepublik Deutschland. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 118, 215–240 (1982). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02706184

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