Trade stability of the Balkan economies, 1956–1970

Summary

The task of this paper has been to investigate the stability patterns of export proceeds of the Balkan economies. Compared with earlier studies, the instability indices have declined for all Balkan economies. The CPEs have achieved the “best” of both worlds, rate of growth and export stability. The two MEs have lower rates of growth and a higher instability. However, when the exports of the two MEs are combined, the two MEs are doing no worse than the two CPEs.

Trade between CPEs and MEs is neither more nor less stable than trade among MEs, with the exception of trade between the two MEs and the United States. The latter instability is dominated by the instability of tobacco exports.

The inter-Balkan estimates reveal the general nature of the region. All of the Balkans are relatively small economies that feel safer in their economic relations with countries farther away than the neighboring countries. This is the case regardless of the political bloc they belong to.