Zusammenfassung
Die Interdependenz nationaler Volkswirtschaften und die Synchronisierung wirtschaftlicher Schwankungen: Ergebnisse aus dem LINK-Projekt. — In diesem Aufsatz werden Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt LINK über die internationale übertragung wirtschaftlicher Schwankungen und der Inflation vorgelegt und interpretiert. Die Hauptergebnisse stammen von Multiplikator-Simulationen der Wirkungen verschiedener Schocks auf das Realeinkommen und die Preise im In- und Ausland. Wir haben die LINK-Simulationen durch eine historische Untersuchung ergÄnzt, in der wir den unterschiedlichen Grad der Synchronisation der Konjunkturzyklen in 16 IndustrielÄndern wÄhrend der letzten 25 Jahre analysieren und einige empirische Ergebnisse über die quantitative Bedeutung der Stillegung von Reserven zum Ausgleich unerwünschter VerÄnderungen der monetÄren Basis durch Devisenmarktinterventionen vorlegen.
Die Multiplikatoranalysen konzentrieren sich auf die Modelle von IndustrielÄndern, die in dem Projekt LINK enthalten sind. Die Modelle werden mit Hilfe eines zentralen Handelsmodells durch Au\enhandelsmengen und -preise verbunden. Auf diese Weise sind die internationalen Ströme von Gütern und Dienstleistungen — aber nicht die Kapitalströme — in dem LINK-System endogen. Die Wechselkurse sind exogen, so da\ die Multiplikatoren so interpretiert werden müssen, da\ sie auf ein System mit fixen oder manipuliert floatenden Wechselkursen anwendbar sind.
Résumé
L’interdépendance des économies nationales et la synchronisation des fluctuations économiques: L’évidence du projet LINK. — Dans cet article nous présentons et interprétons l’évidence du projet LINK concernant la transmission internationale des fluctuations économiques et de l’inflation. L’évidence principale base sur les simulations multiplicatrices des effets des chocs différents sur le revenu réel et les prix locaux et étrangers. Nous avons pris aussi l’opportunité de compléter les simulations LINK par une analyse historique du degré variant de synchronisation des cycles de la conjoncture dans 16 pays industrialisés pendant les 25 années passées et par quelque évidence empirique de l’importance quantitative de la stérilisation de réserve de compenser des changes indésirables de la base monétaire qui dérivent de l’intervention de change.
L’analyse multiplicatrice se concentre sur les modèles structuraux des pays industrialisés compris dans le projet LINK. Les modèles sont liés aux quantités et aux prix des exportations et des importations par un modèle central de commerce extérieur. C’est pourquoi les flux internationaux des biens et des services sont endogènes dans le système LINK, mais les flux des capitaux ne le sont pas. Les taux de change sont exogènes, en manière que les multiplicateurs doivent Être interprétés comme à appliquer à un régime des taux fixes ou des taux managés flottants.
Resumen
La interdependencia de economías nacionales y la sincronización de fluctuaciones económicas: evidencias del proyecto LINK. — En este artículo presentamos e interpretamos evidencias del proyecto LINK concernientes a la transmisión de fluctuaciones económicas e inflación. La evidencia principal es la de simulaciones multiplicadoras de los efectos de varios «shocks» sobre el ingreso real y los precios, tanto internos como externos. También hemos tomado la oportunidad para complementar las simulaciones del LINK con un análisis histórico de variación del grado de sincronización de ciclos comerciales en 16 países industrializados a través de los Últimos 25 años y con alguna evidencia empírica, de la importancia cuantitativa de la estirilización de reservas para neutralizar cambios no deseados en la base monetaria provenientes de intervenciones de moneda extranjera.
Los analisis multiplicadores se concentran sobre los modelos estructurales de países industriales incluidos en el proyecto LINK. Los modelos están ligados por cantidades y precios de exportación y las importaciones por medio de un modelo de comercio central. De esta manera los flujos internacionales de bienes y servicios son endógenos en el sistema LINK, pero los flujos de capital no. Las tasas de cambio son exógenas, de tal manera que los multiplicadores deben interpretarse como correspondientes a un regimen de tipos de cambio fijos o flexibles manejados.
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Hickman, B.G., Schleicher, S. The interdependence of national economies and the synchronization of economic fluctuations: Evidence from the LINK project. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 114, 642–708 (1978). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02696377
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02696377