Skip to main content
Log in

Growth, population, and knowledge diffusion

  • Articles
  • Published:
Knowledge, Technology & Policy

Abstract

This paper reviews the recent development of growth theory, focusing on the consistency between theory and evidence in terms of effects of population on growth, and presents some policy implications. Although positive effects of the population size on growth are likely to exist, the size does not necessarily mean the size of the domestic population. In the world with substantial but costly international knowledge diffusion, what affects growth is the population size of the technological leader country, the United States, from which knowledge spills over, and it is the world population when diffusion is costless. Therefore, policies to promote population growth may not be growth-enhancing for most advanced countries. A more effective population-related policy objective theoretically suggested is to encourage international knowledge diffusion.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aghion, P. & Howitt, P. (1992). "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction." Econometrica, 60(2), pp. 323–351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aghion, P. & Howitt, P. (1998). Endogenous Growth Theory. Cambridge: The MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J., & Kehoe, T. J. (1992). "In Search of Scale Effects in Trade and Growth." Journal of Economic Theory, 58, pp. 377–409.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barro, R. J. & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). "How does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?" Journal of International Economics, 45, pp. 115–135.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Branstetter, L. 2000. "Is Foreign Direct Investment a Channel of Knowledge Spillovers? Evidence from Japan’s FDI in the United States." NBER Working Paper.

  • Branstetter, L. (forthcoming). "Are Knowledge Spillovers International or Intranational in Scope? Microeconometric Evidence from the U.S. and Japan." Journal of International Economics.

  • Cass, D. (1965). "Optimum Growth in an Aggregate Model of Capital Accumulation." Review of Economic Studies, 32, pp. 233–240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coe, D. T. & Helpman, E. (1995). "International R&D Spillovers." European Economic Review, 39, pp. 859–887.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinopoulos, E. & Thompson, P. (1998). "Schumpeterian Growth without Scale Effects." Journal of Economic Growth, 3, pp. 313–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eaton, J. & Kortum, S. (1995). "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement." International Economic Review, 40(3), pp. 537–570.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans, P. (1996). "Using Cross-Country Variances to Evaluate Growth Theories." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20, pp. 1027–1049.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallman, R. (1972). "The Record of American Economic Growth," in American Economic Growth. L. Davis, et al. eds. New York: Harper & Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grossman, G. M. & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge: The MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaffe, A. B. & Trajtenberg, M. (1996). "Flows of Knowledge from Universities and Federal Labs: Modeling the Flow of Patent Citations Over Time and Across Institutional and Geographic Boundaries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93, pp. 12671–12677.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaffe, A. B. & Trajtenberg, M. 1998. "International Knowledge Flows: Evidence from Patent Citations." NBER Working Paper.

  • Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M., & Fogarty, M. S. 2000. "The Meaning of Patent Citations: Report on the NBER/Case-Western Reserve Survey of Patentees." NBER Working Paper: Cambridge.

  • Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M., & Henderson, R. (1993). "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), pp. 577–598.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, C. I. (1995a). "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth." Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), pp. 759–784.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, C. I. (1995b). "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), pp. 495–525.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, C. I. (1998). "Growth: With or Without Scale Effect." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 89, pp. 139–144.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keely, L. C. & Quah, D. (2000). "Technology in Growth," in Determinants of Economic Growth. T. R. van Steveninck ed: Kluwer.

  • Keller, W. (1998). "Are International R&D Spillovers Trade-Related?: Analyzing Spillovers among Randomly Matched Trade Partners." European Economic Review, 42, pp. 1469–1481.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klenow, P. J. & Rodriguez-Clare, A. (1997). "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," in NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge: The MIT Press, pp. 73–103.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koopmans, T. C. (1965). "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," in The Econometric Approach to Development Planning. Amsterdam: North Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kortum, S. S. (1997). "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change." Econometrica, 65(6), pp. 1389–1419.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kremer, M. (1993). "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, pp. 681–716.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maddison, A. (1982). Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maddison, A. (1995). Monitoring the World Economy 1820–1992. Paris: OECD.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic

  • Growth. "Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), pp. 407–437.

  • Mansfield, E., Teece, D., & Romeo, A. (1979). "Overseas Research and Development by US-Based Firms." Economica, 46, pp. 187–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council. (2000). Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population. Washington D.C.: National Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Science Board. (1974). Science Indicators. Washington, D.C.

  • National Science Board. (1978). National Patters of R&D Resources. Washington, D.C.

  • National Science Board. (2000). Science & Engineering Indicators. Washington D.C.

  • OECD. (1998). Internationalization of Industrial R&D: Patterns and Trends. Paris: OECD.

    Google Scholar 

  • Onkvisit, S. & Shaw, J. J. (1993). International Marketing: Analysis and Strategy. New York: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearce, R. (1997). Global Competition and Technology: Essays in the Creation and Application of Technology by Multinationals. London: MacMillan Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peretto, P. F. (1998). "Technological Change and Population Growth." Journal of Economic Growth, 3, pp. 283–311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, F. (1928). "A Mathematical Theory of Saving." Economic Journal, 38, pp. 543–559.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rivera-Batiz, L. A. & Romer, P. M. (1991). "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), pp. 531–555.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romer, P. M. (1990). "Endogenous Technological Change." Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romer, P. M. (1993). "Idea Gaps and Object Gaps in Economic Development." Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, pp. 543–573.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romer, P. M. (1996). "Why, Indeed, in America? Theory, History, and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 86, pp. 202–206.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N. (1981). "Why in America?," in Yankee Enterprise, the Rise of the American System of Manufactures. O. Mayr & Post, R. C. eds. Washington D.C.: Smithsonian Institution Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Segerstrom, P.S. (1998). "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects." American Economic Review, 88(5), pp. 1290–1310.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solow, R. M. (1956). "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Summers, R. & Heston, A. (1991). "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons: 1950–88." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 327–368.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swan, T. W. (1956). "Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation." Economic Record, 32, pp. 334–361.

    Google Scholar 

  • Terpstra, V. (1993). International Dimensions of Marketing. Belmont: Wadsworth.

    Google Scholar 

  • Todo, Y. 2001. "The Revival of Scale Effects.". Department of Economics, Southern Illinois University: Carbondale.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNCTAD. (1996). Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics. New York.

  • Xu, B. (2000). "Multinational Enterprises, Technology Diffusion, and Host Country Productivity Growth." Journal of Development Economics, 62, pp. 447–493.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young, A. (1998). "Growth without Scale Effects." Journal of Political Economy, 106(1), pp. 41–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

He may be reached at: yastodo@siu.edu. His current research interests include the process of knowledge diffusion among advanced countries as well as from advanced to developing countries.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Todo, Y. Growth, population, and knowledge diffusion. Know Techn Pol 13, 94–111 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02693993

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02693993

Keywords

Navigation