Abstract
This paper reviews the recent development of growth theory, focusing on the consistency between theory and evidence in terms of effects of population on growth, and presents some policy implications. Although positive effects of the population size on growth are likely to exist, the size does not necessarily mean the size of the domestic population. In the world with substantial but costly international knowledge diffusion, what affects growth is the population size of the technological leader country, the United States, from which knowledge spills over, and it is the world population when diffusion is costless. Therefore, policies to promote population growth may not be growth-enhancing for most advanced countries. A more effective population-related policy objective theoretically suggested is to encourage international knowledge diffusion.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aghion, P. & Howitt, P. (1992). "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction." Econometrica, 60(2), pp. 323–351.
Aghion, P. & Howitt, P. (1998). Endogenous Growth Theory. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J., & Kehoe, T. J. (1992). "In Search of Scale Effects in Trade and Growth." Journal of Economic Theory, 58, pp. 377–409.
Barro, R. J. & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). "How does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?" Journal of International Economics, 45, pp. 115–135.
Branstetter, L. 2000. "Is Foreign Direct Investment a Channel of Knowledge Spillovers? Evidence from Japan’s FDI in the United States." NBER Working Paper.
Branstetter, L. (forthcoming). "Are Knowledge Spillovers International or Intranational in Scope? Microeconometric Evidence from the U.S. and Japan." Journal of International Economics.
Cass, D. (1965). "Optimum Growth in an Aggregate Model of Capital Accumulation." Review of Economic Studies, 32, pp. 233–240.
Coe, D. T. & Helpman, E. (1995). "International R&D Spillovers." European Economic Review, 39, pp. 859–887.
Dinopoulos, E. & Thompson, P. (1998). "Schumpeterian Growth without Scale Effects." Journal of Economic Growth, 3, pp. 313–335.
Eaton, J. & Kortum, S. (1995). "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement." International Economic Review, 40(3), pp. 537–570.
Evans, P. (1996). "Using Cross-Country Variances to Evaluate Growth Theories." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20, pp. 1027–1049.
Gallman, R. (1972). "The Record of American Economic Growth," in American Economic Growth. L. Davis, et al. eds. New York: Harper & Row.
Grossman, G. M. & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Jaffe, A. B. & Trajtenberg, M. (1996). "Flows of Knowledge from Universities and Federal Labs: Modeling the Flow of Patent Citations Over Time and Across Institutional and Geographic Boundaries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93, pp. 12671–12677.
Jaffe, A. B. & Trajtenberg, M. 1998. "International Knowledge Flows: Evidence from Patent Citations." NBER Working Paper.
Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M., & Fogarty, M. S. 2000. "The Meaning of Patent Citations: Report on the NBER/Case-Western Reserve Survey of Patentees." NBER Working Paper: Cambridge.
Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M., & Henderson, R. (1993). "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), pp. 577–598.
Jones, C. I. (1995a). "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth." Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), pp. 759–784.
Jones, C. I. (1995b). "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), pp. 495–525.
Jones, C. I. (1998). "Growth: With or Without Scale Effect." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 89, pp. 139–144.
Keely, L. C. & Quah, D. (2000). "Technology in Growth," in Determinants of Economic Growth. T. R. van Steveninck ed: Kluwer.
Keller, W. (1998). "Are International R&D Spillovers Trade-Related?: Analyzing Spillovers among Randomly Matched Trade Partners." European Economic Review, 42, pp. 1469–1481.
Klenow, P. J. & Rodriguez-Clare, A. (1997). "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," in NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge: The MIT Press, pp. 73–103.
Koopmans, T. C. (1965). "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," in The Econometric Approach to Development Planning. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Kortum, S. S. (1997). "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change." Econometrica, 65(6), pp. 1389–1419.
Kremer, M. (1993). "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, pp. 681–716.
Maddison, A. (1982). Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Maddison, A. (1995). Monitoring the World Economy 1820–1992. Paris: OECD.
Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic
Growth. "Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), pp. 407–437.
Mansfield, E., Teece, D., & Romeo, A. (1979). "Overseas Research and Development by US-Based Firms." Economica, 46, pp. 187–196.
National Research Council. (2000). Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population. Washington D.C.: National Academic Press.
National Science Board. (1974). Science Indicators. Washington, D.C.
National Science Board. (1978). National Patters of R&D Resources. Washington, D.C.
National Science Board. (2000). Science & Engineering Indicators. Washington D.C.
OECD. (1998). Internationalization of Industrial R&D: Patterns and Trends. Paris: OECD.
Onkvisit, S. & Shaw, J. J. (1993). International Marketing: Analysis and Strategy. New York: Macmillan.
Pearce, R. (1997). Global Competition and Technology: Essays in the Creation and Application of Technology by Multinationals. London: MacMillan Press.
Peretto, P. F. (1998). "Technological Change and Population Growth." Journal of Economic Growth, 3, pp. 283–311.
Ramsey, F. (1928). "A Mathematical Theory of Saving." Economic Journal, 38, pp. 543–559.
Rivera-Batiz, L. A. & Romer, P. M. (1991). "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), pp. 531–555.
Romer, P. M. (1990). "Endogenous Technological Change." Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71–102.
Romer, P. M. (1993). "Idea Gaps and Object Gaps in Economic Development." Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, pp. 543–573.
Romer, P. M. (1996). "Why, Indeed, in America? Theory, History, and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 86, pp. 202–206.
Rosenberg, N. (1981). "Why in America?," in Yankee Enterprise, the Rise of the American System of Manufactures. O. Mayr & Post, R. C. eds. Washington D.C.: Smithsonian Institution Press.
Segerstrom, P.S. (1998). "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects." American Economic Review, 88(5), pp. 1290–1310.
Solow, R. M. (1956). "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65–94.
Summers, R. & Heston, A. (1991). "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons: 1950–88." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 327–368.
Swan, T. W. (1956). "Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation." Economic Record, 32, pp. 334–361.
Terpstra, V. (1993). International Dimensions of Marketing. Belmont: Wadsworth.
Todo, Y. 2001. "The Revival of Scale Effects.". Department of Economics, Southern Illinois University: Carbondale.
UNCTAD. (1996). Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics. New York.
Xu, B. (2000). "Multinational Enterprises, Technology Diffusion, and Host Country Productivity Growth." Journal of Development Economics, 62, pp. 447–493.
Young, A. (1998). "Growth without Scale Effects." Journal of Political Economy, 106(1), pp. 41–63.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
He may be reached at: yastodo@siu.edu. His current research interests include the process of knowledge diffusion among advanced countries as well as from advanced to developing countries.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Todo, Y. Growth, population, and knowledge diffusion. Know Techn Pol 13, 94–111 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02693993
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02693993