Abstract
An information-uncertainty form of the Hicks strike model is used to test earlier work on the role of forecasts and uncertainty in determining strike activity. The expected zero coefficients for economic forecasts appear in preferred equations, but the expected positive coefficient for inflation uncertainty often appears as significantly negative. Alternative formulations and reasoning make the results appear somewhat more plausible. The performance of the Hicks model is contrasted with an updated Ashenfelter and Johnson model, which performs and predicts well without any untidy coefficients. Both models predict better than naive forecasting. Certain data and concept refinements are added to the testing of both analyses to bring them closer to the spirit of their models and to established research in wage determination and macroeconomics.
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Skeels, J.W., McGrath, P. A test of uncertainty, expectations, and error response in two strike models. Journal of Labor Research 12, 205–222 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02685459
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02685459