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Acta Seismologica Sinica

, Volume 5, Issue 3, pp 447–457 | Cite as

The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure

  • Biquan Wang
  • Zuyin Chen
  • Shutian Ma
  • Hongshun Fan
Article

Abstract

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module.

The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces.

Key words

expert system ESEP earthquake prediction seismic precursor pattern recognition 

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Copyright information

© Acta Seismologica Sinica 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Biquan Wang
    • 1
  • Zuyin Chen
    • 2
  • Shutian Ma
    • 1
  • Hongshun Fan
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of GeophysicsState Seismological BureauBeijingChina
  2. 2.Beijing Polytechnical UniversityBeijingChina

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