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Incomplete probability assessments in decision analysis

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Summary

In analysing a decision problem, in a situation ofpartial knowledge, a decision maker may be reluctant to assign acomplete probability distribution on the relevant states of nature. In order to face this difficulty, several methods, based onindeterminate probabilities or probabilityintervals, have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, arguing that it is meaningless to judge probabilistic assessments ascorrect orwrong, it is maintained that onlycoherence has anobjective andsignificant role. Then to overcome practical difficulties, an approach based on thesubjective methodology and on the use ofnumerical andqualitative probabilities, is outlined.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Metodi e Modelli Matematici, Università «La Sapienza» di Roma, Via A. Scarpa 10, 00161, Roma, Italy

    Angelo Gilio

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  1. Angelo Gilio
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Gilio, A. Incomplete probability assessments in decision analysis. J. It. Statist. Soc. 1, 67–76 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02589050

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02589050

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