Summary
A neural-network approach to a hetero-associative prognostic problem in the field of meterology is presented. In particular, the application to the short-range visibility forecast of a neural back-propagation model with adaptive training and test procedures is considered. Our case-study leads to the following results: we achieve a better theoretical understanding of the behaviour of neural networks handling meteorological data (for example, the phenomenon of «network overfitting» and a seasonal-change influence on the performance of the model are recognised); the forecast performances of the network are always better than the persistence and subjective forecasts (in particular, the forecast of the visibility tendency is very good).
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Taylor J. G.,The Promise of Neural Networks, inAdaptive Computing and Information Processing, 25–27 January 1994, Brunel Conference Centre, London, UNICOM Seminars Ltd., Vol.1 (1994), pp. 21–40.
Warwick K.,Neural Network Applications—Some Case Studies, inAdaptive Computing and Information Processing, 25–27 January 1994, Brunel Conference Centre, London, UNICOM Seminars Ltd., Vol.2 (1994), pp. 663–676.
Tovinkere V. R., Penaloza M., Logar A., Lee J., Weger R. C., Berendes T. A. andWelch R. M.,J. Geophys. Res. D,98 (1993) 5001.
Mort N. andChia C. L.,Minimum temperature prediction in agricultural area using artificial neural networks, inColloquium on Neural Networks for Systems: Principles and Application (IEE, London) 1991, pp. 8/1–3.
Schizas C. N., Michaelides S., Pattichis C. S. andLivesay R. R.,Artificial neural networks in forecasting minimum temperature, inSecond International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (IEE, London) 1991, pp. 112–114.
Diyankov O. V., Lykov V. A. andTerenkoff, S. A.,Artificial neural networks in weather forecasting, inRNNS/IEEE Symposium on Neuroinformatics and Neurocomputers, Vol.2 (IEEE, New York, N.Y.) 1992, pp. 829–835.
French M. N., Krajewski W. F. andCuykendall, R. R.,J. Hydrol.,137 (1992) 1.
McCann D. W.,Weather Forecast.,7 (1992) 525.
Lindner A. J. andKrein A. S.,A neural network for forecasting heavy precipitation, inXIII Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, August 2–6, 1993, Vienna, Virginia (American Meteorological Society) 1993, pp. 612–615.
Anfossi D., Cappa C. andAlessio S.,Application of neural nets to precipitation series, inProceedings of the International Conference on Applications of Time Series Analysis in Astronomy and Meterology, Padova, September 6–10 (1993).
Crick F.,Nature,337 (1989) 129.
Spriet J. A. andVansteenkiste G. C.,Computer-aided Modelling and Simulation (Academic Press) 1982.
Pasini A.,Riv. Meteorol. Aeronaut.,52 (1992) 61 (in Italian).
Hertz J., Krogh A. andPalmer R. G.,Introduction to the Theory of Neural Computation (Addison-Wesley) 1991.
ITAV,Quarterly Bulletins on forecast controls (in Italian) (1993–1994).
ICAO,Document on International Standards and Recommended Practice—Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, 10th edition, Annex 3 (1986), p. 59.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pasini, A., Potestà, S. Short-range visibility forecast by means of neural-network modelling: a case-study. Il Nuovo Cimento C 18, 505–516 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02506781
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02506781